15853 Green Cove Blvd · Four Corners, FL 34714

$317,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1996 5,495 sqft lot Est $371k · 14% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ORIGINAL OWNER has taken great care of this immaculate home. Pride in ownership shows! Freshly painted interior. NEW ROOF IN 2018, NEW WATER HEATER, NEW FENCE, NEW REFRIGERATOR & NEW DISHWASHER. AIR CONDITIONER IS 7 yrs new. This home was solidly constructed by Ryland homes. Featuring an Open floor plan including a Kitchen, Living Rm, dining room combo. The eat in Kitchen has plenty of cabinet space and Granite counter tops. The living room is adjacent to the screen enclosed porch overlooking the white vinyl fenced-in yard where you can enjoy the avocado tree and a beautiful oak. Home made guacamole! The Master Retreat is located towards the back of the home with an en suite bath and large walk-in closet. The 2 additional bedrooms are at the front of the home with the secondary bath in between. The Savannas features a community pool, low HOA and is situated 20 minutes from Disney, close to shopping & entertainment. Minutes from the Showcase of Citrus where you can get fresh produce and other fun farm fresh goods.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Fenced yard
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• COUNTER SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 27
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption; No waterfront or water access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association: Maria Gomez); Quarterly association fee of $170 (approximately $56.67/month); Association approval required; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Planned unit development (PUD); One story; Home faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 2156 sq ft building area (public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.13 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $221k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,363 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,512
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15836 Green Cove Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-12%)	20mo	$310,000	$237	61
3397 Rolling Plains Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+2%)	4mo	$390,000	$258	60
15941 Autumn Glen Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+2%)	6mo	$333,000	$219	57
15121 Margaux Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+6%)	0mo	$395,000	$249	54
15925 Bay Vista Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-1%)	21mo	$359,900	$244	53
15307 Petrus Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+6%)	15mo	$402,000	$254	47
2827 Sand Pine St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+10%)	9mo	$440,000	$269	43
15746 Bay Vista Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+14%)	3mo	$350,000	$206	42
2848 Wilshire Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+14%)	12mo	$345,000	$202	35
2980 Sanctuary	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+15%)	22mo	$471,995	$277	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.33% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-34,979
• Equity at exit: $86,851

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,112
• Equity at exit: $100,338

Cash invested: $88,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34714

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,649

Max offer price $278,610

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,250
• Closing costs: $9,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3758 Cinnamon Fern Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,375	$1.70	5d	1	0.10mi
3837 Cinnamon Fern Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,030	$1.24	4d	1	0.12mi
15723 Markham Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,300	$1.33	16d	1	0.38mi
15206 Markham Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,189	$1.58	3d	1	0.38mi
15230 Markham Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,250	$1.30	5d	1	0.43mi
15230 Markham Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,250	$1.30	16d	1	0.43mi
2927 Sanctuary Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	5d	1	0.47mi
16420 Saint Augustine St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,175	$1.16	24d	1	0.49mi
16185 Yelloweyed Dr Clermont, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,449	$1.31	20d	1	0.53mi
15327 Lafite Ln Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,175	$1.35	24d	1	0.62mi
2798 Sanctuary Dr Clermont, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	24d	1	0.62mi
3063 Sanctuary Dr Clermont, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,800	$1.64	5d	1	0.66mi
16536 Centipede St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,295	$1.32	5d	1	0.71mi
2544 Meadow Oaks Loop Clermont, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,355	$1.37	2d	1	0.98mi
16639 Luminary Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,600	$1.54	24d	1	1.04mi
16615 Luminary Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,400	$1.42	20d	1	1.04mi
16607 Luminary Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	5d	1	1.05mi
2779 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1557	$2,175	$1.40	18d	1	1.08mi
2779 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1557	$2,175	$1.40	24d	1	1.08mi
2767 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1557	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	1.09mi
2759 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1557	$2,250	$1.45	24d	1	1.10mi
2742 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,250	$1.34	24d	1	1.12mi
2717 Raindrop Run St Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,499	$1.65	10d	1	1.15mi
15907 Greater Groves Blvd Clermont, FL	4.0	2.0	1340	$2,750	$2.05	24d	1	1.18mi
17520 Butterfly Pea Ct Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	1.33mi
17241 Goldcrest Loop Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,500	$1.47	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $317,000 Active
3. 2019-09-04
   soldstatus $221,000
4. 2019-08-29
   soldstatus $221,000 Sold 1040-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

   ORIGINAL OWNER has taken great care of this immaculate home. Pride in ownership shows! Freshly painted interior. NEW ROOF IN 2018, NEW WATER HEATER, NEW FENCE, NEW REFRIGERATOR & NEW DISHWASHER. AIR CONDITIONER IS 7 yrs new. This home was solidly constructed by Ryland homes. Featuring an Open floor plan including a Kitchen, Living Rm, dining room combo. The eat in Kitchen has plenty of cabinet space and Granite counter tops. The living room is adjacent to the screen enclosed porch overlooking the white vinyl fenced-in yard where you can enjoy the avocado tree and a beautiful oak. Home made guacamole! The Master Retreat is located towards the back of the home with an en suite bath and large walk-in closet. The 2 additional bedrooms are at the front of the home with the secondary bath in between. The Savannas features a community pool, low HOA and is situated 20 minutes from Disney, close to shopping & entertainment. Minutes from the Showcase of Citrus where you can get fresh produce and other fun farm fresh goods.

5. 2019-07-26
   status Pending 1040-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

   ORIGINAL OWNER has taken great care of this immaculate home. Pride in ownership shows! Freshly painted interior. NEW ROOF IN 2018, NEW WATER HEATER, NEW FENCE, NEW REFRIGERATOR & NEW DISHWASHER. AIR CONDITIONER IS 7 yrs new. This home was solidly constructed by Ryland homes. Featuring an Open floor plan including a Kitchen, Living Rm, dining room combo. The eat in Kitchen has plenty of cabinet space and Granite counter tops. The living room is adjacent to the screen enclosed porch overlooking the white vinyl fenced-in yard where you can enjoy the avocado tree and a beautiful oak. Home made guacamole! The Master Retreat is located towards the back of the home with an en suite bath and large walk-in closet. The 2 additional bedrooms are at the front of the home with the secondary bath in between. The Savannas features a community pool, low HOA and is situated 20 minutes from Disney, close to shopping & entertainment. Minutes from the Showcase of Citrus where you can get fresh produce and other fun farm fresh goods.

6. 2019-07-24
   listed $219,900 Active 1040-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

   ORIGINAL OWNER has taken great care of this immaculate home. Pride in ownership shows! Freshly painted interior. NEW ROOF IN 2018, NEW WATER HEATER, NEW FENCE, NEW REFRIGERATOR & NEW DISHWASHER. AIR CONDITIONER IS 7 yrs new. This home was solidly constructed by Ryland homes. Featuring an Open floor plan including a Kitchen, Living Rm, dining room combo. The eat in Kitchen has plenty of cabinet space and Granite counter tops. The living room is adjacent to the screen enclosed porch overlooking the white vinyl fenced-in yard where you can enjoy the avocado tree and a beautiful oak. Home made guacamole! The Master Retreat is located towards the back of the home with an en suite bath and large walk-in closet. The 2 additional bedrooms are at the front of the home with the secondary bath in between. The Savannas features a community pool, low HOA and is situated 20 minutes from Disney, close to shopping & entertainment. Minutes from the Showcase of Citrus where you can get fresh produce and other fun farm fresh goods.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,757
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$9,222
• Taxable loss: −$8,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,200
• Household income: $75,392
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 25% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Current HPI: 256.1331
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.46%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $317,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $221,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) $221,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.