14850 Coaltown Rd · Willis, TX 77378

$230,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1979 6,751 sqft lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $228k · at est. $10/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled home offering modern style with rustic charm! The inviting front exterior features fresh landscaping, cedar shutters and columns, a durable metal roof, and a spacious fenced yard with plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Step inside to an open-concept layout with light wood-look flooring, recessed lighting, neutral paint tones, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating the perfect setup for entertaining and everyday living. The stylish kitchen features sleek two-tone cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, modern fixtures, ample counter space, and a contemporary design that feels brig

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Fenced yard
• Fresh landscaping

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• FRESH LANDSCAPING
• METAL ROOF
• FENCED YARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LIGHT WOOD-LOOK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Arrowhead Lakes community; Association fee $120 annually

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor entry)
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1979
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot in a subdivision; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor) — 16x9; Bedroom (first floor) — 9x9; Bedroom (first floor) — 11x9; Bedrooms possible: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor) — 5x4

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($182/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 13043% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,017 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,219
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 0.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14882 Big Springs Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,341 (-5%)	4mo	$228,888	$171	77
3435 Sam Houston Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-2%)	5mo	$250,000	$181	69
15119 Arrowhead Loop Rd E	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-8%)	3mo	$232,600	$179	63
116 Indian Creek Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,301 (-8%)	8mo	$232,000	$178	61
15113 Austin	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-2%)	1mo	$239,900	$173	61
14962 Indian Hill Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	4mo	$268,000	$179	60
115 Indian Creek Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-12%)	6mo	$217,000	$174	57
3975 Sam Houston Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,341 (-5%)	1mo	$219,600	$164	54
15123 Arrowhead Loop E	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-15%)	1mo	$218,800	$182	53
2442 Mohawk Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-8%)	4mo	$229,900	$176	53
15451 Arrowhead Loop Dr W	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,324 (-6%)	3mo	$219,900	$166	52
3507 Sam Houston Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,230 (-13%)	1mo	$219,999	$179	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,272
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-49,463
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,035/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,981

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15309 Coaltown Rd Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,445	$1.20	24d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,750
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $230,000 Active 912-char remark
16. 2024-02-03
    historical $1,550
17. 2024-02-02
    historical
18. 2024-01-19
    listed $1,550
19. 2023-11-17
    price $239,500
20. 2023-10-29
    price $244,900
21. 2023-10-16
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2023-10-16
    historical
23. 2023-09-27
    price $260,000
24. 2023-09-08
    listed $267,000 Active
25. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2023-02-13
    status Pending
27. 2023-02-03
    status Option Pending
28. 2023-01-23
    price $175,000
29. 2022-12-14
    price $184,900
30. 2022-09-29
    listed $188,000 Active
31. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus
32. 2016-06-15
    soldstatus
33. 2016-06-14
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2016-04-21
    status Pending
35. 2016-04-15
    status Option Pending
36. 2016-04-08
    listed $124,900 Active
37. 2015-11-20
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2015-11-02
    status Pending
39. 2015-10-12
    listed $56,100 Active
40. 2008-05-12
    historical
41. 2008-04-17
    listed $79,500
42. 2008-03-23
    historical
43. 2007-04-23
    listed $79,500
44. 2007-04-01
    historical
45. 2006-11-29
    listed $98,500
46. 2006-04-28
    listed $129,500
47. 2006-04-01
    historical
48. 1997-07-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,174/yr (+$98/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,035
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.6% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-03 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $239,500 HARMLS
• 2023-10-29 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2023-09-27 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $267,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-14 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Listed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2015-11-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-11-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-12 Listed $56,100 HARMLS
• 2008-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-17 Listed $79,500 HARMLS
• 2008-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-04-23 Listed $79,500 HARMLS
• 2007-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-11-29 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2006-04-28 Listed $129,500 HARMLS
• 2006-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 1997-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,035 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.