3009 Positano Loop · Bryan, TX 77808

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2015 6,970 sqft lot $202/sqft · 6% below area Est $270k · 6% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home located in the desirable subdivision of Siena, in Bryan TX! The Siena community boasts beautiful walking trails and a community pool! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, in an open concept floor plan! This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Walking trails
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,815 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,747
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -5.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2031 Positano Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+3%)	3mo	$269,500	$207	86
1018 Venice Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,265 (0%)	9mo	$262,900	$208	82
1075 Venice Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+2%)	13mo	$275,000	$214	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-50,093
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-54,579
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77808

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,257/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425

Max offer price $230,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-68	+0% $-140	+5% $-212	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-229	+0% $-140	+5% $-51	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-75	base $-140	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2131 Naples Way Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,050	$1.39	21d	1	0.11mi
1002 Venice Dr Unit 1328054P Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$4,430	$3.85	14d	1	0.28mi
3185 Normandy Way Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,200	$1.41	21d	1	0.75mi
2703 Colony Glen Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,600	$1.39	21d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   price $254,900 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful home located in the desirable subdivision of Siena, in Bryan TX! The Siena community boasts beautiful walking trails and a community pool! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, in an open concept floor plan! This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $269,900 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful home located in the desirable subdivision of Siena, in Bryan TX! The Siena community boasts beautiful walking trails and a community pool! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, in an open concept floor plan! This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

3. 2016-02-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,257 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,257 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$5,257
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$5,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,797
• Household income: $113,343
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 110.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.49%
• Current HPI: 216.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $254,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $269,900 BCSRMLS
• 2016-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,257 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.