3439 Marlin Dr SE · Oak Island, NC 28422

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2006 9,496 sqft lot Est $176k · 8% over $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A MUST SEE in a prime location! Welcome to 3439 Marlin DR SE, located in the desirable gated community of River Run Plantation. It is a quaint and move in ready home awaiting a new owner. The home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, beautiful LVP flooring throughout and a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. The community is active with amenities such as a seasonal pool, clubhouse, playground, tennis and basketball court, and neighborhood pier. Convenient for boaters and beach lovers alike, the home is located Just a 5 minute drive from the Sunset Harbor boat ramp, approximately 25 minute drive to Oak Island, and approximately 30 minutes from Holden beach. The only thing this home is

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SEASONAL POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Co-R-6000
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($650/year); Community pool; Association amenities include basketball court, playground, tennis courts, gated access, and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel/unpaved parking
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; No fencing; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Water purifier; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#233 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $189k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,560
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3477 Tarpon Ct SE	0.15mi	3/2.0	923 (-0%)	1mo	$220,000	$238	92
644 Harbor Dr SE	0.24mi	3/2.0	923 (-0%)	3mo	$175,500	$190	86
612 Bayshore Dr SE	0.28mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	6mo	$175,000	$189	82
3440 Dolphin Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,015 (+10%)	1mo	$199,000	$196	78
3517 Tarpon Ct SE	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	20mo	$160,000	$173	69
583 Hanover St SE	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	950 (+3%)	1mo	$160,000	$168	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,962
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $35,037
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $428/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $504	+0% $451	+5% $397	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $370	+0% $451	+5% $532	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $499	base $451	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $189,000
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2009-02-11
    historical
21. 2008-09-11
    listed $85,000
22. 2006-10-03
    historical
23. 2006-04-05
    listed $34,500
24. 2005-07-19
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $428 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$94/mo · 262.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$428
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$586
• After-tax cash flow: $4,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Oak Island

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #10757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 8,756
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1543.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2008-09-11 Listed $85,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-10-03 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2006-04-05 Listed $34,500 Hive MLS
• 2005-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $428 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.