21515 W Loc Lohmand Dr · Big Lake, AK 99652

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition 0.93 ac lot $128/sqft · 6% above area Est $113k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This quaint, rustic cabin with new, large bedroom, bathroom and laundry is waiting to be your dream come true! Some finishing touches and you have the best of both worlds, rustic cabin and modern bedroom. Well with strong flow rate and electric to the meter, Blaze King woodstove that will keep you cozy even on the coldest spells this home is all you need if looking to be out, but only 10min from 3 Bears and 25mins from downtown Wasilla!

Key facts

• 10min from 3 bears
• Strong flow rate
• Blaze king woodstove

Tags

• BLAZE KING WOODSTOVE
• STRONG FLOW RATE
• 10MIN FROM 3 BEARS
• 25MINS FROM DOWNTOWN WASILLA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.64%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,282
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 5.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $69,075
• Equity at exit: $53,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $169,444
• Equity at exit: $83,085

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    status Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This quaint, rustic cabin with new, large bedroom, bathroom and laundry is waiting to be your dream come true! Some finishing touches and you have the best of both worlds, rustic cabin and modern bedroom. Well with strong flow rate and electric to the meter, Blaze King woodstove that will keep you cozy even on the coldest spells this home is all you need if looking to be out, but only 10min from 3 Bears and 25mins from downtown Wasilla!

17. 2026-05-10
    status Pending 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This quaint, rustic cabin with new, large bedroom, bathroom and laundry is waiting to be your dream come true! Some finishing touches and you have the best of both worlds, rustic cabin and modern bedroom. Well with strong flow rate and electric to the meter, Blaze King woodstove that will keep you cozy even on the coldest spells this home is all you need if looking to be out, but only 10min from 3 Bears and 25mins from downtown Wasilla!

18. 2025-11-13
    listed $119,900 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This quaint, rustic cabin with new, large bedroom, bathroom and laundry is waiting to be your dream come true! Some finishing touches and you have the best of both worlds, rustic cabin and modern bedroom. Well with strong flow rate and electric to the meter, Blaze King woodstove that will keep you cozy even on the coldest spells this home is all you need if looking to be out, but only 10min from 3 Bears and 25mins from downtown Wasilla!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $8,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $8,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This rustic cabin requires moderate renovations to modernize and improve its condition, enhancing both its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Visible wear and tear
• Major Interior walls — Exposed insulation and worn paint
• Major Flooring — Worn wood flooring
• Major Kitchen countertops — Worn and basic

Value-add opportunities

• Both Modernize kitchen with new countertops and appliances — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed insulation and worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn wood flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen countertops · Worn and basic	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Modernize kitchen with new countertops and appliances — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $119,900 AKMLS