54 Knowlton Ave · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$259,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,384 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1990 5,757 sqft lot Est $222k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained two-family home located on a quiet, well-kept street in Lackawanna. This property features both upper and lower units, each offering recent updates and functional living space—ideal for owner-occupants or investors. Both apartments have been remodeled, including new flooring and carpets. Updates also include new vanities and lighting throughout. Kitchens come equipped with included appliances (stoves and refrigerators), making this a move-in ready opportunity. Hot water tanks and furnaces were cleaned and serviced last winter. Conveniently located with easy access to public transportation, nearby suburbs, and downtown Buffalo. Both apartments are rented and have good s

Key facts

• Recent updates
• New flooring
• Remodeled apartments

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• RECENT UPDATES
• REMODELED APARTMENTS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW VANITIES
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $223/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $260k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $259,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 Arnold Pl	0.24mi	7/4.0 (+1)	2,436 (+2%)	16mo	$195,000	$80	58
390 Martin Rd	0.60mi	6/3.5	2,371 (-0%)	10mo	$355,000	$150	57
1304 Electric Ave	0.64mi	6/2.0	2,500 (+5%)	9mo	$186,000	$74	54
83 Franklin St	0.69mi	6/3.0	2,304 (-3%)	5mo	$215,000	$93	54
43 Victory Ave	0.65mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,285 (-4%)	7mo	$214,500	$94	52
145 Roland Ave	0.43mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (-13%)	5mo	$210,000	$102	49
20 Modern Ave	0.34mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (-13%)	12mo	$145,000	$70	46
86 Colton Ave	0.59mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,399 (+1%)	22mo	$275,000	$115	44
13 Rich Pl	0.70mi	6/3.0	2,254 (-6%)	16mo	$157,000	$70	41
183 Franklin St	0.56mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,684 (+13%)	16mo	$220,000	$82	30
30 Sunrise Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,649 (+11%)	18mo	$303,100	$114	29
120 Center St	0.73mi	6/3.0	2,691 (+13%)	16mo	$157,000	$58	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-13,678
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $24,647
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,684/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,145

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,712
Total (2 units)			$2,711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $259,900 Active
3. 2019-12-11
   soldstatus $130,000
4. 1993-08-27
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,684 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,538 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$854/yr (+$71/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,684
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,603
• − Management: −$2,603
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable income: $1,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$294
• After-tax cash flow: $5,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+159.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $259,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,684 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.