9289 Vista Del Lago Unit G · Watergate, FL 33428

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Condo public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1980 $799/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy stunning lake views from this bright first-floor corner unit with a glass-enclosed patio. Benefit from convenient assigned parking, quick pool access, accordion shutters for protection, & the ability to BBQ outdoors. Inside, find granite countertops, lightly used appliances, updated flooring, crown molding, & a stacked washer/dryer. Live securely in Boca Lago's gated, non-mandatory country club 55+ community near shopping & major roads. Plus, a brand-new air conditioner was installed in October 2025 & new roof 2025. Don't miss the chance to live in comfort and style with spectacular views!

Key facts

• Bbq outdoors
• Quick pool access
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• GLASS ENCLOSED PATIO
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• QUICK POOL ACCESS
• ACCORDION SHUTTERS
• BBQ OUTDOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandpiper Shores Elementary School (math 68% / reading 72%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 820 students, 32% FRL); Eagles Landing Middle School (math 66% / reading 67%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,508 students, 27% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $230k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,095
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,534
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $929/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$799
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,912

Max offer price $212,423

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-34	+0% $-100	+5% $-165	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-210	+0% $-100	+5% $11	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-41	base $-100	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9284 Vista Del Lago Unit 34-F Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,400	$1.97	24d	1	0.06mi
9285 Vista Del Lago Unit 36F Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$3,200	$2.63	26d	1	0.06mi
9299 Vista Del Lago Unit 16D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,900	$2.38	26d	1	0.06mi
9319 Pecky Cypress Ln Unit 19D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,500	$2.76	26d	1	0.25mi
21500 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 38C Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,500	$1.97	26d	1	0.27mi
21529 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 35J Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,395	$1.89	14d	1	0.32mi
21535 Cypress Hammock Dr Unit 36J Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,200	$1.74	26d	1	0.35mi
21650 Juego Cir Unit 24b Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$3,000	$2.47	26d	1	0.50mi
22201 Majestic Woods Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$2,800	$2.19	26d	1	0.51mi
8895 Old Pine Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$4,500	$3.02	12d	1	0.53mi
21362 Juego Cir Unit 33f Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$3,500	$2.88	26d	1	0.58mi
21411 Juego Cir Unit 32b Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	26d	1	0.60mi
21542 Juego Cir Unit 27H Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,400	$1.97	1d	1	0.60mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	3d	1	0.62mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	24d	1	0.62mi
22217 SW 61st Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$3,200	$2.43	16d	1	0.62mi
9244 SW 2nd St Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,300	$2.23	26d	1	0.63mi
9817 Arbor Oaks Ln Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$2,686	$2.42	1d	25	0.64mi
9272 SW 3rd St #413 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,500	$2.60	0d	1	0.68mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	15d	1	0.71mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	14d	1	0.71mi
9210 SW 3rd St #216 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,350	$2.45	26d	1	0.72mi
9260 Ketay Cir #2 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	26d	1	0.72mi
9896 Grand Verde Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1600	$3,098	$1.94	0d	16	0.73mi
9374 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	0d	2	0.73mi
9200 SW 3rd St #109 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	26d	1	0.74mi
9500 SW 3rd St #259 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,350	$1.76	26d	1	0.77mi
20940 Uptown Ave Boca Raton, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1227	$3,331	$2.71	1d	49	0.78mi
9292 Sabal Ridge Cir Unit D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$2,650	$1.80	26d	1	0.83mi
9256 Sabal Ridge Cir Unit D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$2,695	$1.83	26d	1	0.83mi
9292 Sabal Ridge Cir Unit D Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$2,650	$1.80	13d	1	0.83mi
9860 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1222	$2,631	$2.15	1d	34	0.83mi
20927 Sedgewick Dr Unit 20927 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	908	$1,950	$2.15	26d	1	0.84mi
9280 Sable Ridge Cir Apt B Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1475	$2,700	$1.83	4d	1	0.85mi
22062 Acapulco Ct Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$3,650	$3.08	26d	1	0.86mi
22465 SW 61st Way #247 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,700	$1.92	26d	1	0.86mi
22465 SW 61st Way #247 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,600	$1.85	5d	1	0.86mi
21866 Cypress Cir Unit 31e Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,600	$2.14	6d	1	0.89mi
21643 Cypress Rd Unit 14C Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.5	1426	$2,590	$1.82	4d	1	0.91mi
21820 Cypress Cir Unit 25e Boca Raton, FL	1.0	1.0	1216	$1,000	$0.82	24d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $799 · $9,588/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-10-09
   listed $230,000 Active
4. 2024-08-06
   historical
5. 2024-02-05
   listed $290,000 Active
6. 1999-08-21
   soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$980/yr (+$82/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$929
• − Insurance: −$2,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − HOA: −$9,588
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $-84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+117.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $230,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $290,000 Beaches MLS
• 1999-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $929 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.