218 Ashley Cir · Danville, CA 94526

$720,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · Condo public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1972 $630/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

Key facts

• Private fenced patio
• Ample counter space
• Corner-unit townhome

Tags

• CORNER-UNIT TOWNHOME
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE FENCED PATIO
• BRIGHT FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $720k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (48.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($677k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,250 (48.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.22%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 5.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-138,226
• Equity at exit: $233,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-143,481
• Equity at exit: $301,349

Cash invested: $201,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94526

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$900 /mo · $10,800/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $-2,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,096

Max offer price $374,250

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $180,000
• Closing costs: $21,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 Ashley Cir Danville, CA	2.0	2.5	1283	$3,950	$3.08	5d	1	0.05mi
1079 River Rock Ln Danville, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$6,000	$4.02	5d	1	0.42mi
111 W Prospect Ave #205 Danville, CA	1.0	1.5	1255	$4,595	$3.66	24d	1	0.52mi
432 Everett Dr Unit B Danville, CA	1.0	2.0	1200	$3,300	$2.75	43d	1	0.57mi
218 Valley Creek Ln Danville, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,165	$3.17	4d	9	0.65mi
1065 San Ramon Valley Blvd Danville, CA	3.0	2.5	1301	$3,800	$2.92	3d	1	0.75mi
394 Ilo Ln #703 Danville, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$3,100	$3.06	18d	1	0.80mi
756 Old Creek Rd Danville, CA	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,600	$2.85	43d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

2. 2026-04-17
   price $729,000 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

3. 2026-03-27
   status Active 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

4. 2026-03-05
   historical 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

5. 2026-02-04
   price $759,000 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

6. 2026-01-12
   listed $789,000 Active 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   Welcome to 218 Ashley Circle, a beautifully updated corner-unit townhome in the desirable Walnut Forest community of Danville. This light-filled residence offers a flexible floor plan, inviting indoor-outdoor living, and access to thoughtfully maintained community amenities—all just moments from downtown Danville’s shops, dining, and local charm. The main level showcases wide-plank flooring, fresh neutral tones, and a warm, welcoming living room centered around a cozy fireplace. Expansive sliding glass doors open to a private, fenced patio—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment—while abundant natural light fills the space throughout the day. The bright, functional kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, new quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, and a breakfast bar that seamlessly connects to the dining and living areas. The adjacent dining space, highlighted by a modern chandelier, also enjoys direct patio access for effortless indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, new carpeting lines the stairs and hallway, leading to the spacious primary suite, which offers flexibility for a sitting area or home office along with ample closet space and abundant natural light. The remodeled en-suite bath features a sleek walk-in shower with clean

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,331
• − Property taxes: −$10,800
• − Insurance: −$3,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,908
• − Management: −$3,908
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$20,945
• Taxable loss: −$42,198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,127
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Ramon Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635130
• Math proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $138,331
• Composite: 76.08/100
• National rank: #216
• State rank: #28 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3007

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 59,639
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,584
• Household income: $225,097
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 440.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 16% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 338.4779
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.72%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $729,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $759,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $789,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · -47.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.