2404 Bella Vista Dr · Four Corners, FL 33897

$245,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2015 2,152 sqft lot $347/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 4/3.5

Key facts

• $347 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (18.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $202 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,990 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.46%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,512
• Equity at exit: $63,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-56,735
• Equity at exit: $70,994

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,847/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,917

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3169 Bella Vista Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,995	$1.35	13d	1	0.10mi
3152 Bella Vista Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2167	$2,400	$1.11	23d	1	0.13mi
3122 Bella Vista Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,175	$1.47	2d	1	0.15mi
3248 Bella Vista Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2180	$2,550	$1.17	23d	1	0.16mi
5557 Tranquila Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,400	$1.30	14d	1	0.17mi
5030 Vellacito Way Unit 5030 Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2396	$2,495	$1.04	14d	1	0.18mi
5007 Vellacito Way Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,261	$1.07	3d	1	0.19mi
4828 Vellacito Way Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2351	$2,600	$1.11	14d	1	0.22mi
4828 Vellacito Way Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2287	$2,600	$1.14	2d	1	0.22mi
2996 Bella Vista Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1604	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	0.23mi
402 Halstead Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	23d	1	0.36mi
1153 Solana Cir Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2106	$3,100	$1.47	23d	1	0.41mi
1205 Venice Blvd Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1532	$2,149	$1.40	2d	6	0.45mi
730 Pine Cone Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1241	$2,700	$2.18	14d	1	0.49mi
9348 Westside Hills Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1687	$2,500	$1.48	23d	1	0.51mi
362 Casa Verano Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.53mi
728 Stoney Pointe Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1687	$3,000	$1.78	23d	1	0.56mi
710 Stoney Pointe Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,150	$1.48	21d	1	0.57mi
9572 Westside Hills Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,500	$1.59	7d	1	0.59mi
400 Montara Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1903	$2,900	$1.52	18d	1	0.60mi
129 Bella Verano Way Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1746	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.62mi
337 Orista Dr Unit 1263250P Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1829	$2,258	$1.23	2d	1	0.63mi
9090 Norley Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,500	$1.59	7d	1	0.63mi
1031 Splash Shot Pl Unit 1442089P Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,253	$2.11	23d	1	0.65mi
1039 Splash Shot Pl Unit 1039 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,950	$1.65	23d	1	0.66mi
344 Westscott Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,500	$0.96	23d	1	0.66mi
9116 Integra Meadows Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,815	$1.72	1d	13	0.67mi
1164 Kingsbarn St Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1914	$2,750	$1.44	23d	1	0.71mi
9025 Norley Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1998	$3,700	$1.85	17d	1	0.71mi
9033 Hooton Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2138	$3,750	$1.75	23d	1	0.72mi
1184 Kingsbarn St Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1902	$2,950	$1.55	23d	1	0.73mi
200 Roseling Xing Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,075	$1.37	23d	1	0.76mi
495 Overpool Ave Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,400	$1.40	23d	1	0.76mi
1236 Challenge Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2167	$2,900	$1.34	20d	1	0.76mi
1248 Challenge Dr Unit 1359580P Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1905	$3,536	$1.86	7d	1	0.77mi
1264 Challenge Dr Unit 1379445P Kissimmee, FL	5.0	4.0	2163	$3,421	$1.58	7d	1	0.78mi
510 Bogey Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1978	$2,350	$1.19	16d	1	0.78mi
551 Castlemain Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	3d	1	0.80mi
401 Bogey Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1988	$2,300	$1.16	10d	1	0.84mi
286 Bogey Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	4.0	3.5	1954	$2,400	$1.23	23d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $245,000 Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-06-04
   listed $279,000 Active
5. 2025-05-29
   historical
6. 2024-12-20
   listed $305,000 Active
7. 2016-03-10
   soldstatus $201,900
8. 2011-04-28
   soldstatus $1,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,847 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,847 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$6,847
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-75.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-20 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $201,900 Public Records
• 2011-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,847 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.