20683 Waalew Rd Unit B163 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$110,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1978 2,925 sqft lot $63/sqft · at area comps Est $110k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offering comfort, style, and convenience. Step inside to find brand-new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and upgraded light fixtures that give the home a modern, inviting feel. The spacious layout provides plenty of room for both relaxing and entertaining, while the refreshed bathrooms add a clean, updated touch. Located in a desirable community, residents enjoy access to a sparkling pool and a scenic lake—perfect for unwinding or spending time with family and friends.

Key facts

• Refreshed bathrooms
• Updated flooring
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPGRADED LIGHT FIXTURES
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS
• SCENIC LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $995 (as listed)
• HOA & community: Land lease community (land lease amount listed); Rent includes trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces including a 3-space carport; Located in Los Ranchos park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (34' x 60'); One story; Front entry
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Year built: recorded in public records
• Exterior features: Association pool; Community lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Kitchen island; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Single-level home with front entry; All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area on-site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.14%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,280
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -0.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B4	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-8%)	10mo	$67,500	$42	74
20843 Waalew Unit C34	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-4%)	0mo	$45,000	$27	73
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B66	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+1%)	14mo	$86,000	$48	69
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B169	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-13%)	0mo	$108,000	$71	69
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C148	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	4mo	$139,000	$78	68
20843 Waalew Rd #C136	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-9%)	2mo	$110,710	$69	63
20843 WAALEW Rd Unit C48	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	4mo	$135,000	$89	57
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C83	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	3mo	$92,000	$61	55
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C60	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-12%)	9mo	$120,000	$77	53
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C116	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-13%)	9mo	$160,000	$105	51
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C80	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	9mo	$140,000	$93	49
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C8	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	14mo	$110,000	$73	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $56,645
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $162,136
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $1,082

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,144	-5% $1,113	+0% $1,082	+5% $1,050	+10% $1,019
Rent	-10% $908	-5% $995	+0% $1,082	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,255
Rate	-1.0pp $1,137	-0.5pp $1,110	base $1,082	+0.5pp $1,053	+1.0pp $1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $110,000 559-char remark
16. 2026-05-05
    price $115,000 559-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $120,000 Active 559-char remark
18. 2023-12-15
    historical
19. 2023-12-10
    status Active
20. 2023-12-09
    status Active
21. 2023-12-07
    status Active
22. 2023-12-05
    status Active
23. 2023-11-28
    status Active
24. 2023-11-27
    status Active
25. 2023-10-02
    listed $127,900 Active
26. 2023-09-29
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 130.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $11,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,846
• After-tax cash flow: $10,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-12-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-12-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-12-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-12-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-11-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-11-27 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-10-02 Listed $127,900 CRMLS
• 2023-09-29 Coming Soon — CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.