849 Parham St · Carthage, NY 13619

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1850 0.51 ac lot Est $170k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step inside a unique piece of Carthage history! Once serving as the village's train station, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home has been transformed into a comfortable residence filled with character and potential. Offering 1,242 square feet of living space, the home features a spacious family room perfect for gathering with friends and family, along with a formal dining room ideal for holiday meals and entertaining. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and a furnace that is less than five years old. Outside, you'll find a detached 2-car garage providing ample storage and workspace, while the long backyard offers plenty of room for recreation, gardening, or pets. A partially fenced area

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Long backyard
• Outdoor relaxation

Tags

• FORMER TRAIN STATION
• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• LONG BACKYARD
• PARTIALLY FENCED AREA
• OUTDOOR RELAXATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($212/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,745 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,154
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
642 W End Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-0%)	11mo	$55,000	$44	82
664 W End Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	11mo	$27,000	$23	77
622 Fulton St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+0%)	1mo	$190,000	$153	72
622 Alexandria St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+9%)	0mo	$175,000	$129	69
934 Alexandria St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+11%)	4mo	$209,500	$151	62
802 W End Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-3%)	10mo	$164,300	$137	59
316 N Clinton St	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-7%)	7mo	$56,000	$49	56
51 Champion St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+12%)	0mo	$215,000	$154	49
71 Champion St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+6%)	8mo	$143,000	$109	45
620 West St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$187,500	$140	42
74 Champion St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+6%)	12mo	$229,900	$175	42
228 Church St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+13%)	6mo	$159,900	$114	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $85,511
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $250,971
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B