770 Lincoln Ave #80 · Napa, CA 94558

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 2006 $160/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Napa Valley Manor, an exclusive 55+ community offering the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in the heart of Napa, just minutes from shopping, dining, wineries, and everyday essentials. This quality-built Hallmark 3 bed, 2 bath home seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. A front porch invites you to relax and enjoy the serene surroundings, while the private rear porch, accessed through French doors from the primary suite, offers a peaceful retreat for quiet evenings under the stars. Inside, the home features solid surface countertops, rich wood cabinetry, and a kitchen equipped with newer Whirlpool appliances, including new refrigerator, gas stove, dishwasher,

Key facts

• Rich wood cabinetry
• Private rear porch
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE REAR PORCH
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• RICH WOOD CABINETRY
• NEWER WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Space rent listed (future space rent: 0)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Park: Napa Valley Manor

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Single-story (double wide)
• Construction: Manufactured home by Hallmark - Southwest Corp (Make: CharlestonI V); Skirt: Other
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Located in a manufactured home park; Land lease in park

Interior

• Kitchen: Slab counters; Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven and range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Simulated wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks and tub/tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.29%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,895
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -0.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Lincoln Ave #7	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+4%)	8mo	$217,000	$156	83
770 Lincoln Ave #62	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $27,619
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $77,812
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $1,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,265	-5% $1,204	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,082	+10% $1,022
Rent	-10% $859	-5% $1,001	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,285	+10% $1,428
Rate	-1.0pp $1,252	-0.5pp $1,198	base $1,143	+0.5pp $1,088	+1.0pp $1,031

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
727 Central Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$4,260	$3.52	14d	7	0.09mi
2593 Yajome St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,950	$2.78	24d	1	0.33mi
700 Stonehouse Dr Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$3,299	$3.16	14d	8	0.36mi
962 Jackson St Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1041	$3,350	$3.22	44d	1	0.40mi
849 Laguna St Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,600	$2.69	44d	1	0.41mi
2701 Soscol Ave Apt B Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	44d	1	0.44mi
550 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$2,197	$2.78	14d	12	0.45mi
2710 Cooper Ct Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,995	$3.15	44d	2	0.54mi
2942 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$3,201	$3.56	14d	18	0.64mi
327 Pear Tree Ln Unit B Napa, CA	3.0	3.0	1472	$3,990	$2.71	14d	1	0.65mi
2295 York St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,850	$2.38	24d	1	0.66mi
312 Pear Tree Ter Unit C Napa, CA	3.0	2.5	1721	$4,100	$2.38	14d	1	0.66mi
3200 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$3,816	$4.37	14d	13	0.76mi
3300 Old Soscol Way Napa, CA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1434	$3,900	$2.72	14d	6	0.81mi
713 Trancas St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	833	$2,299	$2.76	14d	6	0.82mi
1509 Banks Ave Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,450	$4.05	44d	1	0.87mi
1678 E St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1037	$2,750	$2.65	24d	1	0.89mi
1802 F St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,450	$2.60	24d	1	0.92mi
1518 Meek Ave Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1276	$4,500	$3.53	44d	1	0.94mi
45 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	942	$3,100	$3.29	44d	1	0.94mi
3098 Stadium Ave Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,250	$3.25	24d	1	0.97mi
1186 East Ave Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1160	$3,500	$3.02	44d	1	0.99mi
3460 Shelter Creek Dr Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,100	$2.82	44d	1	1.01mi
129 Firefly Ln Napa, CA	3.0	4.0	1496	$3,800	$2.54	44d	1	1.12mi
2283 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,700	$2.74	24d	1	1.14mi
2283 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,700	$2.74	44d	1	1.14mi
7 Michael Way Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,395	$2.57	44d	1	1.17mi
542 E Spring St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1608	$5,500	$3.42	14d	1	1.18mi
2614 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$3,100	$3.57	14d	2	1.27mi
510 Coombs St Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,700	$2.70	24d	1	1.27mi
2638 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$3,435	$3.81	14d	6	1.29mi
2108 Lone Oak Ave Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,200	$3.82	44d	1	1.30mi
2611 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$3,600	$3.71	14d	6	1.34mi
162 Valley Oak Dr Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$2,750	$2.35	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $215,000 Active 1641-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 142.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$6,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,455
• − Management: −$3,455
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $11,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $11,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $215,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $674 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.