706 Pearson St · Natalia, TX 78059

$82,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1957 9,949 sqft lot $66/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fresh opportunity in Natalia. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a functional layout, 2-car garage, and a cozy patio porch perfect for everyday living. Bright interior with solid bones throughout. Needs some updates and minor repairs, offering great potential to add value. Conveniently located near I-35, local shops, dining, schools, and nearby parks. Ideal for buyers or investors seeking upside.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Cozy patio porch
• 9,949 sq ft lot

Tags

• COZY PATIO PORCH
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.2% in Natalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Natalia ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #735 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($572 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,832 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.39%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,892
• List price: $82,800
• Delta: -54.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 6 th St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$54,900	$46	82
816 County Rd #6723	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+1%)	3mo	$319,900	$254	72
610 7th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+10%)	13mo	$145,500	$106	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $20,911
• Equity at exit: $33,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $58,792
• Equity at exit: $49,882

Cash invested: $23,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78059

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$434
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $82,800

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,700
• Closing costs: $2,484
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 County Road 6715 Natalia, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,800 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,800 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,800 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,800 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,800 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,800 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,800 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,800 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,800 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,800 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,800 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,800 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,800 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,800 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,800 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $82,800 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Fresh opportunity in Natalia. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a functional layout, 2-car garage, and a cozy patio porch perfect for everyday living. Bright interior with solid bones throughout. Needs some updates and minor repairs, offering great potential to add value. Conveniently located near I-35, local shops, dining, schools, and nearby parks. Ideal for buyers or investors seeking upside.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $90,000 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Fresh opportunity in Natalia. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a functional layout, 2-car garage, and a cozy patio porch perfect for everyday living. Bright interior with solid bones throughout. Needs some updates and minor repairs, offering great potential to add value. Conveniently located near I-35, local shops, dining, schools, and nearby parks. Ideal for buyers or investors seeking upside.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,515 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$300/yr (+$25/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,638
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,409
• Taxable income: $1,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$337
• After-tax cash flow: $2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natalia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832130
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,941
• Composite: 19.86/100
• National rank: #8692
• State rank: #735 of 826 in TX

Livability — Natalia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #821
• US rank: #14875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natalia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,139

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 27% White 27% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Current HPI: 231.2357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $82,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $90,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,215 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.