Palmary Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$454,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this home. A spacious center island provides ease for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers storage solution. The covered patio extends along the back of house allowing for year-round outdoor enjoyment.

Key facts

• Elegant foyer
• Covered patio
• Large pantry

Tags

• ELEGANT FOYER
• SPACIOUS CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $454,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $487,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (46.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,457/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,744 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.55%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,512
• List price: $454,990
• Delta: -6.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6299 Van Buren Ct	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,943 (0%)	5mo	$460,000	$237	87
6392 Liberty St	0.53mi	2/2.0	2,046 (+5%)	1mo	$410,000	$200	66
6345 Liberty St	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,805 (-7%)	6mo	$355,000	$197	65
5904 Gala Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	2,052 (+6%)	4mo	$590,000	$288	64
6359 Achievement	0.40mi	2/2.5	2,114 (+9%)	0mo	$490,000	$232	64
6244 Harmony Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (+6%)	2mo	$500,000	$243	64
6101 Victory Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,721 (-11%)	0mo	$414,000	$241	63
6093 Victory Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,762 (-9%)	7mo	$429,000	$243	62
5924 Gala Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (+6%)	3mo	$510,000	$248	59
6341 Liberty St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,674 (-14%)	2mo	$419,000	$250	57
5972 Gala Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,081 (+7%)	2mo	$625,000	$300	52
5641 Celebration Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,687 (-13%)	1mo	$446,000	$264	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-138,375
• Equity at exit: $116,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-211,409
• Equity at exit: $121,430

Cash invested: $136,503 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $459,990 ($252/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,557
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$609 /mo · $7,313/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-1,580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,457

Max offer price $258,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,243	-5% $-1,411	+0% $-1,580	+5% $-1,748	+10% $-1,917
Rent	-10% $-1,774	-5% $-1,677	+0% $-1,580	+5% $-1,483	+10% $-1,386
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,334	-0.5pp $-1,456	base $-1,580	+0.5pp $-1,706	+1.0pp $-1,835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,878
• Closing costs: $14,625
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	109d	1	0.34mi
6160 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	6d	1	0.34mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	119d	1	0.37mi
6205 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	6d	1	0.39mi
6140 Victory Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2496	$5,000	$2.00	119d	1	0.46mi
5939 Gala Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$5,995	$2.61	119d	1	0.55mi
5939 Gala Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$5,995	$2.61	6d	1	0.55mi
6421 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$5,800	$3.02	119d	1	0.59mi
6437 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$4,200	$2.21	6d	1	0.63mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	119d	1	0.64mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1685	$2,995	$1.78	6d	1	0.64mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	119d	1	0.73mi
5709 Constitution St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	119d	1	0.81mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	6d	1	0.83mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	119d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	6d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	116d	1	0.83mi
5784 Declaration Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,495	$1.76	0d	1	0.88mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4618 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	6d	1	0.89mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	119d	1	0.89mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	119d	1	0.89mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,195	$1.51	6d	1	0.89mi
5697 Melbourne Ct #7022 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.89mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	119d	1	0.89mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4431 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,250	$1.73	6d	1	0.89mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	119d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	119d	1	0.89mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	119d	1	0.89mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	119d	1	0.89mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	6d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	119d	1	0.89mi
5728 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2087	$2,650	$1.27	119d	1	0.91mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	119d	1	0.96mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	119d	1	0.96mi
6003 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2395	$11,995	$5.01	119d	1	0.96mi
5257 Juliet Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1894	$2,495	$1.32	6d	1	0.97mi
5698 Mayflower Way #405 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1868	$5,495	$2.94	6d	1	1.00mi
6023 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2379	$4,995	$2.10	119d	1	1.00mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	6d	3	1.01mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	119d	2	1.01mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $454,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: Palmary (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 6231 Liberty St, Ave Maria, FL 34142

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,943 total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $454,990 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $454,990 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $454,990 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $454,990 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $454,990 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $454,990 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $454,990 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $454,990 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $454,990 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $454,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $454,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $454,990 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $454,990 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $454,990 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $454,990 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $454,990 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $454,990 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $454,990 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $454,990 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $454,990 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $454,990 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $454,990 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $454,990 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $454,990 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $454,990 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $454,990 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $454,990 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $454,990 Active 79 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $454,990 Active 78 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $454,990 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $454,990 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $454,990 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $454,990 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $454,990 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $454,990 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-08-07
    days on market $454,990 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $454,990 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $454,990 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $454,990 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $454,990 Active 66 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $454,990 Active 63 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $454,990 Active 62 DOM
43. 2026-07-29
    days on market $454,990 Active 61 DOM
44. 2026-07-27
    days on market $454,990 Active 59 DOM
45. 2026-07-25
    days on market $454,990 Active 57 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $454,990 Active 56 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $454,990 Active 55 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $454,990 Active 54 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $454,990 Active 53 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $454,990 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,308
• − Property taxes: −$7,313
• − Insurance: −$4,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,359
• − Management: −$2,359
• − Depreciation: −$14,182
• Taxable loss: −$28,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious living area, a functional kitchen, and two bathrooms. The covered patio and landscaping add to its appeal. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the home's move-in-ready condition and its location in a desirable area.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Reorganizing interior spaces — Creates a more functional and inviting living space for potential buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $454,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: Palmary (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 6231 Liberty St, Ave Maria, FL 34142

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,943 total living area)