214 County Road 2800 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2000 0.68 ac lot $78/sqft · 39% below area Est $156k · 39% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on a spacious 0.68-acre lot, this property is full of opportunity for the right buyer with vision. Featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in need of complete repairs, this is the perfect chance to renovate, customize, or even start fresh and create something truly special. The property also includes a versatile metal shop with electricity—ideal for a garage, workshop, storage space, or hobby area. Whether you’re an investor, a handyman, or someone looking to build your dream setup, the possibilities here are endless. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings with plenty of room to expand, garden, or design your own private retreat. If you’re ready to bring your ideas to l

Key facts

• 0.68-acre lot
• Private retreat
• Room to expand

Tags

• 0.68-ACRE LOT
• METAL SHOP WITH ELECTRICITY
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• PRIVATE RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story layout
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first level (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Living room on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.28%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,424
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -39.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
188 County Road 2800	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$159,900	$131	93
40 County Road 2801	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	8mo	$159,900	$128	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $30,379
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $90,078
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $720	+0% $693	+5% $666	+10% $640
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $630	+0% $693	+5% $757	+10% $821
Rate	-1.0pp $741	-0.5pp $717	base $693	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $95,000 Active 804-char remark
15. 2026-04-30
    historical
16. 2025-11-05
    price $119,000
17. 2025-08-22
    price $124,000
18. 2025-05-13
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,238/yr (+$103/mo · 247.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $124,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $129,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · -66.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.