337 Buckhorn Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$138,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1995 10,018 sqft lot Est $146k · 6% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 337 Buckhorn Drive - a charming and move-in-ready 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom manufactured home offering 868 sq ft of comfortable living space on a spacious 1/4-acre lot. This thoughtfully updated home features fresh paint, new flooring throughout, and a bright, white kitchen with ample cabinet space. The open floor plan concept provides a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Additional appliances included are the washer, dryer, and refrigerator.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Open floor plan
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• UPDATED HOME
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 31% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,930 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.25%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,320
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
474 & 466 Forest Hill St	0.34mi	2/2.0	896 (-5%)	11mo	$190,000	$212	64
250 Deer Vly	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	902 (-4%)	18mo	$140,000	$155	64
706 Flintstone Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+13%)	16mo	$60,000	$56	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,798
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,799
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $934/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Quail Run St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.24mi
270 Ridgerock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	43d	1	0.51mi
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	23d	1	0.55mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	43d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-26
   historical $1,200
2. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-14
   historical Active Option
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $138,000 New
5. 2026-03-02
   listed $1,200
6. 2026-03-01
   historical
7. 2025-12-01
   status Back on Market
8. 2025-11-25
   historical Active Option
9. 2025-11-20
   price $138,000
10. 2025-07-05
    price $151,900
11. 2025-06-08
    listed $155,000 New
12. 2013-10-28
    soldstatus
13. 1980-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $934 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,591/yr (+$133/mo · 170.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$934
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $1,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Rental Removed $1,200 SABOR
• 2026-03-28 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-04 Listed $138,000 LERA
• 2026-03-02 Listed for Rent $1,200 SABOR
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-25 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $138,000 LERA
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $151,900 LERA
• 2025-06-08 Listed $155,000 LERA
• 2013-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $934 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.