2313 SE 30th St · Taylor Creek, FL 34974

$159,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,020 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1974 8,000 sqft lot Est $204k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This canal-front property offers lake access, peaceful water views, and so much potential! New Metal Roof & New A/C Featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, plus 2 extra rooms that could be used as an office, guest room, hobby space, and more. Bring all offers and come see the possibilities this waterfront property has to offer! CASH ONLY

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Water views
• Canal front

Tags

• CANAL FRONT
• LAKE ACCESS
• WATER VIEWS
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW A C
• EXTRA ROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One-story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials: Other
• Exterior features: Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable built-in interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($387/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Taylor Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#874 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Elementary School (math 38% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 573 students, 61% FRL); Osceola Middle School (math 53% / reading 36%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 753 students, 67% FRL); Okeechobee High School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,692 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $159k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,000
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 SE 31st St	0.07mi	2/2.0	912 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$219	76
2612 SE 29th St	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	960 (-6%)	0mo	$160,000	$167	71
2126 SE 35th Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	896 (-12%)	4mo	$193,000	$215	56
2607 SE 38th Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+8%)	11mo	$285,000	$258	52
3202 SE 24th St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (+1%)	18mo	$105,000	$102	46
3331 SE 28th St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,075 (+5%)	16mo	$215,000	$200	45
3515 SE 25th Ter	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+15%)	20mo	$287,000	$245	38
3111 SE 28th St	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+13%)	19mo	$165,000	$143	37
3310 SE 23rd St	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+7%)	23mo	$155,000	$142	33
3612 SE 19th Ter	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,159 (+14%)	23mo	$209,000	$180	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,706
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,975
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34974

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,084/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $77	+0% $32	+5% $-13	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-23	+0% $32	+5% $88	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $73	base $32	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical $1,400
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $159,000 Active
19. 2026-04-25
    listed $1,400
20. 2026-03-23
    historical $1,400
21. 2026-01-27
    listed $1,400
22. 2024-07-17
    soldstatus $89,900
23. 2024-07-10
    status Active
24. 2024-07-09
    price $100,000
25. 2024-06-05
    historical $1,800
26. 2024-06-05
    listed $180,000 Active
27. 2024-06-02
    price $1,800
28. 2024-05-16
    listed $1,620
29. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus $53,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,084
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okeechobee
• NCES district ID: 1201410
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,710
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4855
• State rank: #58 of 73 in FL

Livability — Taylor Creek

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #874
• US rank: #23017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor Creek, FL
• County: Okeechobee County · 23,975 people
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,975
• Household income: $53,013
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Okeechobee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,273 people
• By 2030: 35,885 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 32,931 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 29,433 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 19,607 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 11,814 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okeechobee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.9% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.47%
• Current HPI: 348.6692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Rental Removed $1,400 RENTSPREE
• 2026-05-18 Listed $159,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed for Rent $1,400 RENTSPREE
• 2026-03-23 Rental Removed $1,400 RENTSPREE
• 2026-01-27 Listed for Rent $1,400 RENTSPREE
• 2024-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2024-07-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-05 Rental Removed $1,800 Avail
• 2024-06-05 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $1,800 Avail
• 2024-05-16 Listed for Rent $1,620 Avail
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $53,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,084 · +79.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.