18730 Rosemary Rd · Aripeka, FL 34667

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1969 8,450 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. CASH ONLY! ATTENTION INVESTORS!! Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath block home offering 1,252 square feet of living space in the charming coastal community of Aripeka. Following the 2024 storm, several improvements have been made, creating a great opportunity for buyers looking to enjoy Florida's Nature Coast lifestyle. Located less than a half mile from Gulf access, this property offers convenient access to boating, fishing, kayaking, and some of Florida's most beautiful sunsets. Aripeka is a hidden gem surrounded by natural beauty, coastal wildlife, and the serene waters of the Gulf Coast. Buyer(s) is responsible for verifying all information deemed

Key facts

• Boating
• Serene waters
• Gulf access

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• BOATING
• FISHING
• KAYAKING
• COASTAL WILDLIFE
• SERENE WATERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcel(s); Zoned AR
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces west; Fixer condition; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of about 0.19 acres
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Limerock road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#850 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hills Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 471 students, 77% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,259/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $120k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.68%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,139
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,233
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $584	-5% $551	+0% $517	+5% $483	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $427	+0% $517	+5% $606	+10% $695
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $547	base $517	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10114 Briar Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,000	$1.31	26d	1	0.93mi
18802 Whiterock Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	6d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $120,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,892
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $5,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Aripeka

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #850
• US rank: #21736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aripeka, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $169,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-30 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2015-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-30 Listed $65,000 HCAR
• 2013-12-30 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.