5102 Panay Park Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$219,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 4,813 sqft lot Est $336k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled by Linden Builders; impeccable, with lots of upgrades. Three spacious bedroom home with large kitchen and breakfast area. Tile and carpet; upgraded bathrooms. New light fixtures and ceiling fans; gas range, new microwave oven. New Granite countertops with undermount sinks. Travertine backsplash. You won't be disappointed.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Ensuite
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2007
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Pantry; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Kitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15x14); Bedroom on second floor (11x10); Bedroom on second floor (12x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,314 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5102 Park Village Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-14%)	1mo	$300,000	$158	68
5327 Cj Walker Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,088 (-6%)	2mo	$317,500	$152	66
11719 Greenshire Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-5%)	6mo	$295,000	$140	62
12815 Mosscrest Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,924 (-13%)	3mo	$140,000	$73	60
12910 Almeda Crossing Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,994 (-10%)	0mo	$234,999	$118	59
11810 Mosscrest Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,903 (-14%)	0mo	$202,000	$106	58
12004 Matthew Gaines Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,997 (-10%)	11mo	$332,889	$167	54
5318 Cj Walker Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,997 (-10%)	11mo	$338,134	$169	51
4510 Bungalow Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-5%)	12mo	$163,000	$78	49
5302 Basquiat Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,997 (-10%)	18mo	$325,546	$163	47
11810 Hunkler Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,932 (-13%)	7mo	$199,000	$103	31
5516 Madden Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (-10%)	20mo	$306,290	$155	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,097
• Equity at exit: $94,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $36,738
• Equity at exit: $141,479

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,643/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $179,314

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	43d	1	0.34mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.42mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,691	$1.09	7d	1	0.57mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.66mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	0.99mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.00mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	43d	1	1.14mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	1.17mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	7d	1	1.26mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	1.30mi
5726 Waterford Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	10d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $219,990 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,990 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,990 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,990 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,643 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,643 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,643
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2014-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-25 Price Changed $129,950 HARMLS
• 2014-01-28 Listed $134,950 HARMLS
• 2013-10-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-09-02 Listed $124,310 HARMLS
• 2010-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-02 Listed $132,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,643 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.