2607 Patrick Henry · Auburn Hills, MI 48326

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Condo · 57 Days on market

Built 1968 $99/sqft · 30% above area Est $112k · 30% over $411/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $411 HOA
• Built 1968
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.4% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $145k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,612
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 29.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-20,656
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-28,298
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48326

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$411
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $180	+0% $130	+5% $80	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $53	+0% $130	+5% $207	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $167	base $130	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2610 Davison Ave Unit 20-2628 Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	3d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit *17-2763 Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	44d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit *17-2773 Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,475	$1.40	44d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit 14-2718 Auburn Hills, MI	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	25d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit *22-2582 Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	22d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit 22956 Auburn Hills, MI	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,175	$1.81	44d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	22d	1	0.23mi
2610 Davison Ave Unit *22-2598 Auburn Hills, MI	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,150	$2.62	44d	1	0.23mi
3474 Brookshear Cir Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	0d	1	0.26mi
2891 Olden Oak Ln Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	0d	10	0.34mi
2644 N Squirrel Rd Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,150	$2.01	0d	3	0.35mi
2748 Barrington Sq Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1178	$2,150	$1.83	3d	1	0.35mi
2688 Barrington Sq Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,995	$1.67	10d	1	0.36mi
2676 Barrington Sq Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1209	$1,895	$1.57	0d	1	0.39mi
2830 Davison Ave Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,600	$1.41	44d	1	0.44mi
3300 5 Points Dr Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,369	$2.16	0d	17	0.56mi
2040 Taylor Rd Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	782	$1,675	$2.14	18d	6	0.92mi
1221 Colony Ln Pontiac, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,250	$1.32	0d	3	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $411 · $4,932/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $145,000 Active
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $145,000 Active
17. 2024-07-19
    status Pending
18. 2024-07-19
    status Pending
19. 2024-07-19
    historical
20. 2024-07-19
    historical
21. 2024-07-18
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
22. 2024-07-18
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
23. 2024-07-14
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2024-07-14
    listed $135,000 Active
25. 2016-09-19
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
26. 2016-09-19
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
27. 2016-08-11
    status Pending
28. 2016-08-11
    status Pending
29. 2016-04-30
    listed $55,000 Active
30. 2016-04-30
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − HOA: −$4,932
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$116
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pontiac City School District
• NCES district ID: 2628740
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,888
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9802
• State rank: #514 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn Hills, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 24,514
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,514
• Household income: $85,190
• Rent vs Own: 48.3% rent · 51.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 986.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Asian 15% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.32%
• Current HPI: 178.7685
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.27%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+163.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-18 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-14 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-09-19 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-19 Sold (MLS) $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-04-30 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-30 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP