2609 Drumwood Pl · Valrico, FL 33596

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1987 7,920 sqft lot $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Buckhorn subdivision
• Community park

Tags

• BUCKHORN SUBDIVISION
• COMMUNITY PARK
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED REAR PORCH
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($49/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buckhorn Elementary School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 759 students, 47% FRL); Mulrennan Middle School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,185 students, 47% FRL); Durant High School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,589 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $325k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,294 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-49,727
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-31,726
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33596

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,242/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $96	+0% $4	+5% $-88	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-98	+0% $4	+5% $106	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $87	base $4	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Tallowtree Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,220	$1.37	1d	1	0.81mi
4434 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,581	$1.29	6d	1	0.87mi
4318 Brooke Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,486	$1.34	26d	1	0.91mi
2403 Stonehill Ave Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,500	$1.24	26d	1	0.92mi
1102 Lumsden Trace Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,306	$1.27	26d	1	1.21mi
1209 Hawley Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,265	$1.60	0d	1	1.33mi
3720 Hollow Wood Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,610	$1.20	5d	1	1.33mi
904 Citrone Ct Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$2,795	$1.28	16d	1	1.37mi
4617 Newbourne Way Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	6d	1	1.43mi
1263 Piney Branch Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,800	$1.37	16d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $325,000 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

2. 2026-04-22
   price $334,900 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

3. 2026-04-10
   status Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

4. 2026-04-10
   price $339,000 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

5. 2026-03-27
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

6. 2026-03-24
   listed $335,000 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   Located in highly desired Buckhorn subdivision of Valrico, this home is a tremendous opportunity. Proximity to highly rated schools, and daily shopping needs including Sprouts, Publix and the new Whole Foods which is opening soon. . The primary boast double vanity, shower, walk in closet and toilet room. NO CDD, Optional HOA, with community park as an amenity. Next to the highly regarded and private Buckhorn Springs Golf and Country Club. Split plan, 3/2/2 with fireplace, oversized rear porch and mature landscaping adding to this homes appeal! Call today to schedule your showing!

7. 1987-05-01
   soldstatus $83,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,242
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $1,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.33%
• Current HPI: 301.312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+290.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,242 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.