11 Holly Ln · Duluth, MN 55810

$53,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $54/sqft · 42% below area Est $91k · 42% under $63/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 3 Bedroom, 2 bath Friendship mobile home in Zenith Terrace. Outside you'll find a nice deck leading to a great shed for hanging out or storage needs along with a 1 year old roof and new insulation skirting. Clean & ready to be owned & enjoyed. .. make it yours today.

Key facts

• Great shed
• Nice deck
• 1 year old roof

Tags

• NICE DECK
• GREAT SHED
• 1 YEAR OLD ROOF
• NEW INSULATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Zenith Terrace; Annual association fee of $750 (includes lawn care)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; Electric service by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level/main floor living; Slab foundation
• Construction: Steel siding; Roof age 8 years or newer; Built on 14x70 foundation dimensions
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl exterior; Storage shed; Paved streets with private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (bedroom sizes: 12x10, 10x7, 10x7)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; Three-quarter primary bathroom on the main level (5x7)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Main floor primary bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; No internal stairs (single-level access)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (hookup available); Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $53k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Proctor Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #177 of 301 in MN (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($366 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $51,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.16%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,241
• List price: $53,000
• Delta: -41.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Plumtree Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+9%)	8mo	$79,900	$75	62
2 Dewberry Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-14%)	2mo	$29,000	$35	56
121 Oak St	0.64mi	3/1.0	934 (-5%)	3mo	$220,000	$236	56
21 Oak St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-6%)	6mo	$170,000	$184	51
9123 Brook St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,091 (+11%)	7mo	$220,000	$202	39
132 1st St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (+9%)	12mo	$145,000	$136	35
9114 Vinland St	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (+14%)	18mo	$269,900	$242	23
9202 Meadow St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (-15%)	20mo	$201,000	$240	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $62,127
• Equity at exit: $47,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.58×
• Total profit: $156,954
• Equity at exit: $102,967

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55810

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $543

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $53,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $53,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 33 DOM

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Affordable 3 Bedroom, 2 bath Friendship mobile home in Zenith Terrace. Outside you'll find a nice deck leading to a great shed for hanging out or storage needs along with a 1 year old roof and new insulation skirting. Clean & ready to be owned & enjoyed. .. make it yours today.

6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Affordable 3 Bedroom, 2 bath Friendship mobile home in Zenith Terrace. Outside you'll find a nice deck leading to a great shed for hanging out or storage needs along with a 1 year old roof and new insulation skirting. Clean & ready to be owned & enjoyed. .. make it yours today.

11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $65,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Affordable 3 Bedroom, 2 bath Friendship mobile home in Zenith Terrace. Outside you'll find a nice deck leading to a great shed for hanging out or storage needs along with a 1 year old roof and new insulation skirting. Clean & ready to be owned & enjoyed. .. make it yours today.

19. 2026-05-14
    listed $65,000 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Affordable 3 Bedroom, 2 bath Friendship mobile home in Zenith Terrace. Outside you'll find a nice deck leading to a great shed for hanging out or storage needs along with a 1 year old roof and new insulation skirting. Clean & ready to be owned & enjoyed. .. make it yours today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $5,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $4,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. It has average interior walls and paint, and minor repairs are needed in the kitchen. Upgrading the interior and landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — faded paint in some areas
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the interior walls and kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both upgrading the kitchen countertops — Modern countertops can improve the home's resale and rental value
• Both landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · faded paint in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the interior walls and kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading the kitchen countertops — Modern countertops can improve the home's resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Proctor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,151
• Composite: 38.84/100
• National rank: #4106
• State rank: #177 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• City population: 71,097
• Population (ZIP): 8,305

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.59%
• Current HPI: 515.02
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $53,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $53,000 LSAR
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $60,000 LSAR
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $60,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $65,000 LSAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid