1046 Sperling Ave · Naples, FL 34103

$649,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1978 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible opportunity to purchase a centrally located, single-family home with ideal southern exposure! Live in this cozy home, reimagine it to your tastes, or tear it down and build. The vacant lot directly to the west is also for sale giving the buyer the option of one home per lot or to use the approximate combined . 31 acres to build their dream home. The area has no rental restrictions so income generation is possible while planning your build or renovation. It’s just over a mile to Naples beautiful beaches, 1.5 miles to Waterside Shops, and a ten-minute drive to access everything Old Naples has on offer.

Key facts

• Outstanding location
• Fully renovated
• Central naples home

Tags

• CENTRAL NAPLES HOME
• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• OUTSTANDING LOCATION
• MINUTES TO DOWNTOWN
• MINUTES TO WHOLE FOODS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Resale condition
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 15 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Two standard bedrooms (approx. 12 x 12 each); Master bedroom (approx. 24 x 15)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double-hung windows; Unfurnished; Bedroom on main level; Separate/formal dining room; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $628k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,282/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $500k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $571,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-21,740
• Equity at exit: $96,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $196,745
• Equity at exit: $56,191

Cash invested: $181,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34103

• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,069/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,319
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,279

Max offer price $649,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,160	-5% $976	+0% $793	+5% $609	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $544	+0% $793	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,289
Rate	-1.0pp $1,120	-0.5pp $958	base $793	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,475
• Closing costs: $19,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1097 Frank Whiteman Blvd Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	1590	$10,900	$6.86	24d	1	0.21mi
3930 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$6,000	$4.62	24d	1	0.23mi
4082 Belair Ln #11 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$6,000	$3.75	24d	1	0.30mi
1240 Shady Rest Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$6,000	$3.71	14d	1	0.30mi
4092 Belair Ln #15 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1500	$6,200	$4.13	24d	1	0.34mi
788 Park Shore Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	931	$5,500	$5.90	14d	3	0.35mi
723 Willowhead Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	24d	1	0.49mi
1082 Capri Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$9,000	$6.00	24d	1	0.50mi
656 Binnacle Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$10,000	$5.53	24d	1	0.56mi
4523 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	24d	1	0.58mi
4525 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	24d	1	0.58mi
555 Park Shore Dr Unit B410 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	22d	1	0.58mi
3200 Binnacle Dr Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1180	$9,000	$7.63	22d	1	0.60mi
4200 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1406	$9,000	$6.40	24d	5	0.63mi
4180 Crayton Rd Unit E7 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$8,900	$5.56	24d	1	0.63mi
45 High Point Cir S #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$5,500	$5.42	24d	1	0.64mi
3105 Riviera Dr Unit A201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1625	$8,000	$4.92	24d	1	0.69mi
4300 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,750	$5.62	14d	2	0.71mi
355 Park Shore Dr Unit 1-114 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1574	$13,000	$8.26	24d	1	0.74mi
3030 Binnacle Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$5,000	$4.58	24d	1	0.77mi
250 Park Shore Dr #803 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$15,000	$8.88	24d	1	0.77mi
820 Ketch Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,700	$5.18	24d	1	0.85mi
820 Ketch Dr #3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	24d	1	0.85mi
1400 Pompei Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,888	$1.86	24d	2	0.96mi
1400 Pompei Ln Unit O-21 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,200	$2.15	24d	1	0.97mi
1400 Pompei Ln Unit S-21 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$3,000	$2.93	24d	1	0.97mi
3500 Gulf Shore Blvd N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$7,650	$6.08	24d	2	1.00mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$12,000	$6.92	24d	1	1.03mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1705 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$18,500	$10.00	24d	1	1.03mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,900	$3.98	24d	1	1.03mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$18,000	$10.37	24d	1	1.03mi
1265 Pompei Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$3,495	$2.12	14d	1	1.03mi
4255 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1403 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$12,500	$8.14	24d	1	1.05mi
3400 Gulf Shore Blvd N Unit M3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1337	$9,500	$7.11	24d	1	1.07mi
4530 Gulf Shore Blvd N Unit 2-122 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1786	$15,000	$8.40	24d	1	1.07mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #700 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1646	$17,000	$10.33	14d	1	1.08mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #800 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1646	$12,000	$7.29	24d	1	1.08mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #607 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$14,000	$10.00	24d	1	1.08mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #605 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$10,000	$7.89	24d	1	1.08mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #707 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$20,000	$15.79	24d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $649,900
2. 2026-04-30
   price $669,900
3. 2026-03-13
   price $674,900
4. 2026-02-09
   price $699,000
5. 2025-11-28
   listed $739,000 Active
6. 2023-03-27
   soldstatus $500,000
7. 2023-03-23
   soldstatus $500,000 Sold 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Incredible opportunity to purchase a centrally located, single-family home with ideal southern exposure! Live in this cozy home, reimagine it to your tastes, or tear it down and build. The vacant lot directly to the west is also for sale giving the buyer the option of one home per lot or to use the approximate combined . 31 acres to build their dream home. The area has no rental restrictions so income generation is possible while planning your build or renovation. It’s just over a mile to Naples beautiful beaches, 1.5 miles to Waterside Shops, and a ten-minute drive to access everything Old Naples has on offer.

8. 2023-03-05
   status Pending 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Incredible opportunity to purchase a centrally located, single-family home with ideal southern exposure! Live in this cozy home, reimagine it to your tastes, or tear it down and build. The vacant lot directly to the west is also for sale giving the buyer the option of one home per lot or to use the approximate combined . 31 acres to build their dream home. The area has no rental restrictions so income generation is possible while planning your build or renovation. It’s just over a mile to Naples beautiful beaches, 1.5 miles to Waterside Shops, and a ten-minute drive to access everything Old Naples has on offer.

9. 2023-02-26
   status Pending With Contingencies 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   Incredible opportunity to purchase a centrally located, single-family home with ideal southern exposure! Live in this cozy home, reimagine it to your tastes, or tear it down and build. The vacant lot directly to the west is also for sale giving the buyer the option of one home per lot or to use the approximate combined . 31 acres to build their dream home. The area has no rental restrictions so income generation is possible while planning your build or renovation. It’s just over a mile to Naples beautiful beaches, 1.5 miles to Waterside Shops, and a ten-minute drive to access everything Old Naples has on offer.

10. 2023-01-27
    listed $575,000 Active 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    Incredible opportunity to purchase a centrally located, single-family home with ideal southern exposure! Live in this cozy home, reimagine it to your tastes, or tear it down and build. The vacant lot directly to the west is also for sale giving the buyer the option of one home per lot or to use the approximate combined . 31 acres to build their dream home. The area has no rental restrictions so income generation is possible while planning your build or renovation. It’s just over a mile to Naples beautiful beaches, 1.5 miles to Waterside Shops, and a ten-minute drive to access everything Old Naples has on offer.

11. 2018-04-06
    soldstatus $217,805
12. 2003-06-17
    soldstatus $375,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,069 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,394 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,326/yr (+$110/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,405
• − Property taxes: −$4,069
• − Insurance: −$5,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,030
• − Management: −$6,030
• − Depreciation: −$18,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$272
• After-tax cash flow: $9,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,299
• Household income: $116,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.53%
• Current HPI: 315.1396
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.55%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+73.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $649,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $669,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $674,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $699,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $739,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-23 Sold (MLS) $500,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-05 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-02-26 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $575,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $217,805 Public Records
• 2003-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,069 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.