304 SW 6th · Bogata, TX 75417

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1980 $90/sqft · 12% below area Est $158k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the charm of small-town living in this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed with comfort and functionality in mind. The spacious living area provides plenty of room to relax or entertain, while the large kitchen offers ample space for cooking and gathering. A generously sized laundry room adds everyday convenience, and brand-new carpet throughout gives the home a fresh, updated feel. Step outside to a yard enclosed with a chain link fence—perfect for pets or outdoor enjoyment—and take advantage of the 1-car garage for parking or additional storage. With its practical layout, recent updates, and peaceful setting, this home is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy a quieter lifestyle without sacrificing space or comfort. Perfect first home or investment property. Don’t miss this great opportunity to make it your own!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Large kitchen
• 1-car garage

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• 1-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#915 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Rivercrest ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #212 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rivercrest El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 334 students, 68% FRL); Rivercrest J H (math 62% / reading 52%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 165 students, 70% FRL); Rivercrest H S (math 64% / reading 54%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 201 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,009 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,167
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -11.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 S Howison	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,629 (+5%)	6mo	$58,000	$36	66
115 Brooks Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,682 (+8%)	7mo	$169,900	$101	61
637 S Bryson St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+8%)	20mo	$204,500	$122	57
141 Mount Vernon Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+14%)	13mo	$160,000	$90	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $67,297
• Equity at exit: $123,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $203,196
• Equity at exit: $265,008

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75417

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,519/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $120,637

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-30	-5% $-69	+0% $-109	+5% $-149	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-154	+0% $-109	+5% $-64	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-73	base $-109	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,900 Active 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    Enjoy the charm of small-town living in this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed with comfort and functionality in mind. The spacious living area provides plenty of room to relax or entertain, while the large kitchen offers ample space for cooking and gathering. A generously sized laundry room adds everyday convenience, and brand-new carpet throughout gives the home a fresh, updated feel. Step outside to a yard enclosed with a chain link fence—perfect for pets or outdoor enjoyment—and take advantage of the 1-car garage for parking or additional storage. With its practical layout, recent updates, and peaceful setting, this home is ideal for anyone looking to enjoy a quieter lifestyle without sacrificing space or comfort. Perfect first home or investment property. Don’t miss this great opportunity to make it your own!

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,500
18. 2026-04-16
    historical $1,450
19. 2026-04-14
    listed $1,450
20. 2022-03-03
    price $1,300
21. 2020-12-17
    soldstatus
22. 2008-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$3/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,519
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $-413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rivercrest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842120
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,064
• Composite: 40.93/100
• National rank: #3611
• State rank: #212 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bogata

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #16355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bogata, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,204

Population outlook (Red River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,454 people
• By 2030: 10,874 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 9,715 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 8,552 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,042 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 4,037 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Red River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 19.0% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.79%
• Current HPI: 166.851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10661.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Rental Removed $1,450 Simplifyem
• 2026-04-14 Listed for Rent $1,450 Simplifyem
• 2022-03-03 Price Changed $1,300 RENT.
• 2020-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,519 · -22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.