12606 Grandezza Cir · Estero, FL 33928

$624,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,073 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2005 10,010 sqft lot Est $786k · 21% under $442/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open, spacious home offering a sought after southern exposure and gorgeous sprawling long lake views. Beautifully decorated throughout, tile, high ceilings, tray ceilings, accent paint, designer window treatments and fixtures. Ideal for entertaining with flow through from family, living room and master suite to the lanai. Large kitchen, 42'' cabinets with crown, glass tile backsplash, walk-in pantry, breakfast nook with bay windows and breakfast bar opens to the family room with 4-section tray ceiling and tranquil water views. Open up the numerous sliders allowing in the Florida breeze, enjoy the day swimming in the built-in heated pool/spa and the evening ambiance with the impressive accent outdoor lighting in both rear and front of the home. 2-guest bedrooms, one easily used as a den, and other guest suite with private bath. Larger master suite, 2-large walk-in closets and private bath, upgraded plumbing fixtures, corner roman tub in tile and in-lays with chandelier above.

Key facts

• Long water views
• Resort-style pool
• Heated pool

Tags

• LONG WATER VIEWS
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SETUP
• HEATED POOL
• SPA OVERLOOKING LAKE VIEWS
• RECENTLY UPDATED CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with quarterly fee; Association fee covers cable, internet, irrigation water, legal/accounting, and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, cabana, tennis courts, pickleball, putting greens, restaurant, private membership, and management; Gated community with street lights; Community of approximately 100 units

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered garage spaces; Driveway; Paved parking
• Security: Gated community; Security gate with guard; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; North-facing; Resale property; Has view
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation system (reclaimed water); Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Furnished; Tray and cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; Bathtub; Cable TV; Split bedrooms; Single hung windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $624k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $624k).
• Recommended offer: $605k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,247/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($605k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $440k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $605,280 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $785,667
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12640 Grandezza Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,979 (-4%)	18mo	$770,000	$389	70
12512 Grandezza Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,294 (+11%)	3mo	$870,000	$379	68
12777 Springbrook Ct	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,183 (+5%)	4mo	$779,900	$357	51
12592 Wildcat Cove Cir	0.63mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (+4%)	14mo	$724,900	$336	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-52,127
• Equity at exit: $93,040

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-36,199
• Equity at exit: $53,952

Cash invested: $174,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,272
• Tax from tax record: −$653 /mo · $7,833/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$442
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,522
• Net cashflow: $1,098

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,857

Max offer price $624,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,000
• Closing costs: $18,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12595 Grandezza Cir Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$10,500	$6.37	23d	1	0.04mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	23d	1	0.20mi
20091 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$10,950	$4.41	23d	1	0.20mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$8,500	$3.90	16d	1	0.56mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$6,000	$2.75	23d	1	0.56mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	3d	1	0.62mi
20187 Ainsley St Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2135	$3,500	$1.64	16d	1	0.64mi
20651 Wildcat Run Dr #101 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$3,495	$2.15	23d	1	0.68mi
20101 Seagrove St #708 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$5,995	$4.19	23d	1	0.70mi
20051 Seagrove St #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$5,995	$3.83	23d	1	0.72mi
20151 Seagrove St #206 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,000	$3.46	23d	1	0.72mi
20161 Seagrove St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1702	$6,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.74mi
20161 Seagrove St #108 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1655	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.74mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	16d	1	0.77mi
20884 Thistle Leaf Ln Estero, FL	4.0	4.0	2976	$3,900	$1.31	3d	1	0.82mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.87mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	23d	1	0.88mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	23d	1	0.92mi
19200 Aqua Shore Dr Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2062	$9,000	$4.36	23d	1	0.93mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	23d	1	1.00mi
20083 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1981	$10,500	$5.30	23d	1	1.01mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	23d	1	1.02mi
20310 Calice Ct #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$5,500	$3.51	23d	1	1.07mi
20623 Fair Oak Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,800	$1.78	23d	1	1.08mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	23d	1	1.14mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	1.15mi
13525 Villa Di Preserve Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2271	$3,500	$1.54	23d	1	1.19mi
13561 Villa Di Preserve Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.27mi
14930 Blue Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2801	$15,000	$5.36	16d	1	1.34mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,720	$2.78	2d	18	1.35mi
20516 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,200	$1.40	23d	1	1.37mi
15278 Blue Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1891	$11,000	$5.82	23d	1	1.38mi
20561 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,700	$1.18	23d	1	1.40mi
20239 Cypress Shadows Blvd Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2004	$3,750	$1.87	3d	1	1.41mi
20007 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.42mi
15050 Blue Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2801	$6,500	$2.32	23d	1	1.43mi
20013 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,700	$1.18	23d	1	1.43mi
20316 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2282	$3,600	$1.58	23d	1	1.45mi
20085 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,650	$1.16	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $442 · $5,304/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $624,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $624,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $624,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $624,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $648,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $648,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $648,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $648,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $648,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $648,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $648,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $648,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $648,000
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $660,000 Active
15. 2024-05-02
    historical $3,995
16. 2024-01-24
    price $3,995
17. 2023-12-20
    listed $4,295
18. 2023-12-05
    historical $4,295
19. 2023-11-15
    listed $4,295
20. 2016-06-23
    price $440,000
21. 2016-06-23
    soldstatus $440,000
22. 2016-06-21
    price $449,900
23. 2012-03-22
    soldstatus $420,000
24. 2012-03-21
    soldstatus $420,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Open, spacious home offering a sought after southern exposure and gorgeous sprawling long lake views. Beautifully decorated throughout, tile, high ceilings, tray ceilings, accent paint, designer window treatments and fixtures. Ideal for entertaining with flow through from family, living room and master suite to the lanai. Large kitchen, 42'' cabinets with crown, glass tile backsplash, walk-in pantry, breakfast nook with bay windows and breakfast bar opens to the family room with 4-section tray ceiling and tranquil water views. Open up the numerous sliders allowing in the Florida breeze, enjoy the day swimming in the built-in heated pool/spa and the evening ambiance with the impressive accent outdoor lighting in both rear and front of the home. 2-guest bedrooms, one easily used as a den, and other guest suite with private bath. Larger master suite, 2-large walk-in closets and private bath, upgraded plumbing fixtures, corner roman tub in tile and in-lays with chandelier above.

25. 2012-03-21
    price $439,000 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Open, spacious home offering a sought after southern exposure and gorgeous sprawling long lake views. Beautifully decorated throughout, tile, high ceilings, tray ceilings, accent paint, designer window treatments and fixtures. Ideal for entertaining with flow through from family, living room and master suite to the lanai. Large kitchen, 42'' cabinets with crown, glass tile backsplash, walk-in pantry, breakfast nook with bay windows and breakfast bar opens to the family room with 4-section tray ceiling and tranquil water views. Open up the numerous sliders allowing in the Florida breeze, enjoy the day swimming in the built-in heated pool/spa and the evening ambiance with the impressive accent outdoor lighting in both rear and front of the home. 2-guest bedrooms, one easily used as a den, and other guest suite with private bath. Larger master suite, 2-large walk-in closets and private bath, upgraded plumbing fixtures, corner roman tub in tile and in-lays with chandelier above.

26. 2008-02-05
    soldstatus $450,000
27. 2006-06-01
    listed $575,000
28. 1999-02-24
    soldstatus $3,040,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,833 · $653/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,833 · $653/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,954
• − Property taxes: −$7,833
• − Insurance: −$3,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,957
• − Management: −$6,957
• − HOA: −$5,304
• − Depreciation: −$18,153
• Taxable income: $3,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$884
• After-tax cash flow: $12,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-78.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $648,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $660,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-02 Rental Removed $3,995 FORTMLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $3,995 FORTMLS
• 2023-12-20 Listed for Rent $4,295 FORTMLS
• 2023-12-05 Rental Removed $4,295 FORTMLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed for Rent $4,295 FORTMLS
• 2016-06-23 Price Changed $440,000 BEARMLS
• 2016-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-21 Price Changed $449,900 BEARMLS
• 2012-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-21 Price Changed $439,000 FORTMLS
• 2012-03-21 Sold (MLS) $420,000 FORTMLS
• 2008-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Listed $575,000 MIML
• 1999-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $3,040,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,833 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.