7357 SE 168th Mitzi St · The Villages, FL 32162

$318,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2018 3,920 sqft lot Est $306k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Light filled layout
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD SETTING
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• LIGHT FILLED LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,669/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,116 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.40%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,704
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16820 SE 74 Soulliere Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	3mo	$347,000	$212	70
16925 SE 77th Northridge Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+3%)	6mo	$310,000	$208	66
7441 SE 171st Cobblestone St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+6%)	21mo	$310,000	$203	58
7808 SE 168th Lone Oak Loop	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+3%)	18mo	$299,500	$201	55
17107 SE 78th Parlange Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-6%)	6mo	$385,000	$283	53
7322 SE 172nd Legacy Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+14%)	8mo	$352,000	$215	46
17112 SE 78th Parlange Ter	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+8%)	10mo	$309,000	$198	46
17126 SE 78th Larchmont Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,229 (-15%)	14mo	$352,000	$286	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,637
• Equity at exit: $47,549

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $68,752
• Equity at exit: $27,573

Cash invested: $89,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,672
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,279/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,784

Max offer price $318,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $880	-5% $790	+0% $700	+5% $609	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $410	-5% $555	+0% $700	+5% $845	+10% $989
Rate	-1.0pp $860	-0.5pp $781	base $700	+0.5pp $617	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,725
• Closing costs: $9,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7630 SE 174th Gaillard Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,500	$3.56	22d	1	0.74mi
17442 SE 79th Lovewood Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,500	$3.92	22d	1	0.90mi
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	22d	1	1.13mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	22d	1	1.13mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	15d	1	1.39mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $318,900
3. 2026-04-14
   price $328,900
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $339,900 Active
5. 2024-12-04
   soldstatus $310,000 Closed 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

6. 2024-11-26
   status Pending 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

7. 2024-10-25
   price $295,000 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

8. 2024-10-11
   price $305,000 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

9. 2024-09-27
   listed $329,000 Active 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to your dream home in The Villages! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence modern comfort and style. Built in 2018, this home features an open-concept layout with abundant natural light, for entertaining or cozy family gatherings. The spacious living area seamlessly connects to a well-appointed kitchen, complete with contemporary appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the serene master suite, which boasts a private en-suite bathroom and plenty of closet space. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC system installed in 2018, ensuring year-round comfort. The outdoor space is for relaxation or gatherings, with a lovely yard and patio area. Located in the vibrant community of The Villages, you'll have access to numerous amenities, including golf courses, recreational facilities, and social activities.

10. 2023-01-09
    historical
11. 2022-12-19
    price $359,000
12. 2022-11-08
    price $369,900
13. 2022-10-26
    price $380,000
14. 2022-09-27
    listed $385,000 Active
15. 2022-06-03
    listed $390,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,863
• − Property taxes: −$2,279
• − Insurance: −$1,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,522
• − Management: −$3,522
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,277
• Taxable income: $3,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$846
• After-tax cash flow: $7,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $318,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $328,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-04 Sold (MLS) $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Listed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-19 Price Changed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-26 Price Changed $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-27 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $390,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,279 · -66.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.