17 Roadrunner Ln · Shell Knob, MO 65747

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · Other · 56 Days on market

Built 2022 0.86 ac lot $67/sqft · 49% below area Est $196k · 49% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover a truly unique opportunity in Shell Knob, Missouri with access to Table Rock Lake! This partially completed Dirksen pre-built lofted barn home, full of potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. Situated on a spacious 0.86-acre corner lot spanning three parcels, this property provides both privacy and room to expand. The home is designed with two lofts, featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and includes 11 windows--some of which are unique dormer windows--bringing in great natural light. A storm door is already installed, and much of the heavy lifting has been completed. Electric and water are in place, with water service already brought up to the home and r

Key facts

• Storm door installed
• 11 windows
• 0.86 acre lot

Tags

• ACCESS TO TABLE ROCK LAKE
• SPACIOUS 0.78-ACRE CORNER LOT
• DESIGNED WITH TWO LOFTS
• 11 WINDOWS
• UNIQUE DORMER WINDOWS
• STORM DOOR INSTALLED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile/modular); Residential property
• Construction: 1,495 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Storm doors; Corner lot with few trees; Gravel road access; Includes additional parcel(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No cooling; No heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.1% in Shell Knob — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#254 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,408
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -49.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,188
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,373
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65747

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $176	+0% $141	+5% $107	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $99	+0% $141	+5% $183	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $166	base $141	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $115,000 Active 1664-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $1,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

Livability — Shell Knob

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #12290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,957
• Population (ZIP): 3,957

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 12% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.62%
• Current HPI: 252.5383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $99,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-24 Listed $115,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $49 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.