Goodall Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$431,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,198 sqft · SingleFamily · 176 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. At the heart is an open-concept design which includes the modern kitchen with a center island, an intimate dining area and a spacious family room with a covered porch. Nearby is the tranquil owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms and a versatile flex space are located down the hall.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Covered porch
• Intimate dining area

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Goodall)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,198 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan (Goodall)

🏗️ New construction. The $431,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $443,996.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $432k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $422k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,222/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $380,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,996
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4432 Steinbeck Way	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,959 (-11%)	18mo	$395,000	$202	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-17,515
• Equity at exit: $106,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $41,238
• Equity at exit: $110,591

Cash invested: $124,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$555 /mo · $6,660/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,884

Max offer price $443,996

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,999
• Closing costs: $13,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	23d	1	0.35mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	14d	1	0.57mi
4843 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2588	$3,300	$1.28	23d	1	0.63mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	23d	1	0.67mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	23d	1	0.74mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	10d	1	0.75mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	23d	1	0.77mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	23d	1	0.80mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	23d	1	0.85mi
5169 Roma St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2874	$5,995	$2.09	23d	1	0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	23d	1	0.85mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	23d	1	0.86mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	21d	1	0.92mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.92mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	12d	1	0.93mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	23d	1	0.99mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	21d	1	1.00mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	23d	1	1.01mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	14d	1	1.06mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	21d	1	1.14mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	21d	1	1.14mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	14d	1	1.18mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	21d	1	1.22mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	12d	1	1.22mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	21d	1	1.22mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.26mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	23d	1	1.26mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	21d	1	1.30mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	23d	1	1.30mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	23d	1	1.30mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	21d	1	1.31mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	12d	1	1.36mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	21d	1	1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	21d	1	1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	12d	1	1.38mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	21d	1	1.40mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	23d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	23d	1	1.41mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	12d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $431,999 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $431,999 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $431,999 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $431,999 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $431,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $431,999 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $431,999 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $431,999 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $431,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $431,999 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $431,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $431,999 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,871
• − Property taxes: −$6,660
• − Insurance: −$2,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,054
• − Management: −$4,054
• − Depreciation: −$12,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $4,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B