9905 Mariner Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Other public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1977 0.25 ac lot $246/sqft · 55% below area $127/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY. Serene log cabin on 1/4 acre in the desirable Carlyon Beach neighborhood! Steps away from the Sound with a wood stove and creek running out back. This peaceful cabin is truly a time capsule. One bedroom and one bath downstairs with a spiral staircase leading up to the large sleeping loft upstairs. Enjoy a plethora of community amenities including a private community beach, boat launch, park, clubhouse and playground. Cabin needs work and is sold As-Is. Seller to do no repairs. 30 day minimum rental stays.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Boat launch
• Creek

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• WOOD STOVE
• CREEK
• LARGE SLEEPING LOFT
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY BEACH
• BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $165k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,448
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -54.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $100,200
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $287,917
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,753/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $204	+0% $157	+5% $110	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $89	+0% $157	+5% $225	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $199	base $157	+0.5pp $114	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $165,000 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-04-24
    price $184,950
12. 2026-04-02
    listed $199,950 Active
13. 2022-02-07
    soldstatus $30,000
14. 2022-02-07
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,753
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$178
• After-tax cash flow: $2,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+516.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $184,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Listed $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,753 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.