Plan 1453 Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$438,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 full-size bathrooms, and a game room this home perfect for entertaining friends and family! As you enter through the foyer, you will immediately notice an abundance of windows letting in natural light. Designed to be the heart of the home, the gourmet kitchen is complete with center island, lots of counter space, corner pantry and opens into the dining and family room. Located off the family room is a secluded secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a full-size bathroom. Ideally situated on the first floor, the main bedroom features tall ceilings, two walk-in closets and an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks. Upon entering the second floor, you will see the spacious game room offering endless uses. A private hallway leads to two secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets, as well as a shared full-size bathroom. A 2 car rear-entry garage completes the beauty and functionality of the home.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• SECLUDED SECONDARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $438,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $530,398.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-999 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,551 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $530,398
• List price: $438,990
• Delta: -17.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4609 Timberdrift St	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,311 (-3%)	6mo	$464,900	$201	81
1434 Terrain Rd	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,521 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$188	74
4021 Alpine St	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,311 (-3%)	0mo	$439,900	$190	74
3845 Foot Hills Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-5%)	1mo	$452,500	$200	69
1430 Terrain Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-5%)	5mo	$445,000	$197	66
4613 Timberdrift St	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,698 (+13%)	3mo	$539,900	$200	66
1225 Deacon Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,521 (+6%)	3mo	$487,900	$194	63
4613 Clearcrest Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,656 (+12%)	4mo	$519,900	$196	63
4609 Clearcrest Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,031 (-15%)	2mo	$489,990	$241	62
3838 Foot Hills Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (+6%)	2mo	$472,900	$188	60
1837 Flowing Ridge Rd	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,028 (-15%)	5mo	$489,900	$242	55
4809 Signal Run Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,521 (+6%)	3mo	$479,819	$190	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-144,969
• Equity at exit: $79,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-188,798
• Equity at exit: $45,859

Cash invested: $148,511 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1135
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$663 /mo · $7,956/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,640

Max offer price $385,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-632	-5% $-816	+0% $-999	+5% $-1,182	+10% $-1,365
Rent	-10% $-1,265	-5% $-1,132	+0% $-999	+5% $-865	+10% $-732
Rate	-1.0pp $-732	-0.5pp $-864	base $-999	+0.5pp $-1,136	+1.0pp $-1,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,600
• Closing costs: $15,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1810 Hidden Water Trl Midlothian, TX	3.0	3.0	2456	$3,800	$1.55	45d	1	0.22mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	1d	1	0.46mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $438,990 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $438,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $438,990 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $438,990 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $438,990 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $438,990 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $438,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $438,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $438,990 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $438,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $438,990 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $438,990 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $438,990 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $438,990 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $483,990 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Stunning 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 full-size bathrooms, and a game room this home perfect for entertaining friends and family! As you enter through the foyer, you will immediately notice an abundance of windows letting in natural light. Designed to be the heart of the home, the gourmet kitchen is complete with center island, lots of counter space, corner pantry and opens into the dining and family room. Located off the family room is a secluded secondary bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a full-size bathroom. Ideally situated on the first floor, the main bedroom features tall ceilings, two walk-in closets and an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks. Upon entering the second floor, you will see the spacious game room offering endless uses. A private hallway leads to two secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets, as well as a shared full-size bathroom. A 2 car rear-entry garage completes the beauty and functionality of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,711
• − Property taxes: −$7,956
• − Insurance: −$2,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$15,430
• Taxable loss: −$21,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $483,990 Zillow