Hazel Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$246,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Home, sweet Hazel. Our Hazel floor plan is a premier new home design for those seeking the perfect combination of cozy comfort and a modern feel. Whether you're looking to purchase your first home or need a more functional living space, this floor plan could be the perfect option for you. Upon entry through the front porch, you're immediately met with a foyer that makes you feel welcome into the home. The foyer provides ample space for storage and décor, offering direct access to the family room, utility room, and two-car garage. If more space is needed, you have the option to upgrade to a two-and-a-half or three-car plan for plenty of extra room to park or store items. Moving into t

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $246,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as Active
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,633 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Hazel (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $246,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,069.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,294 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,069
• List price: $246,990
• Delta: -5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14368 Oceanblue Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+2%)	3mo	$262,990	$158	88
14396 Oceanblue Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+2%)	1mo	$257,990	$155	88
14270 Moonflower Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-4%)	1mo	$253,990	$161	82
14266 Moonflower Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+7%)	3mo	$279,990	$160	80
14478 Trumpet Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-2%)	3mo	$274,990	$172	79
14398 Chilean Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,689 (+3%)	3mo	$274,015	$162	75
14400 Oceanblue Way	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+10%)	3mo	$265,990	$148	72
21613 Jasmine Star Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-4%)	2mo	$244,990	$156	72
14408 Oceanblue Way	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-9%)	2mo	$248,990	$167	69
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-13%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	65
14298 Moonflower Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-13%)	3mo	$274,590	$194	61
21621 Jasmine Star Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-11%)	2mo	$234,990	$162	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-52,981
• Equity at exit: $39,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,586
• Equity at exit: $22,659

Cash invested: $73,379 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,931/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $238,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-75	+0% $-166	+5% $-256	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-248	+0% $-166	+5% $-83	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-99	base $-166	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,517
• Closing costs: $7,862
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	25d	1	0.53mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,095	$1.17	6d	57	0.74mi
14373 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,400	$0.74	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,990 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,990 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,990 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,990 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $246,990 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,990 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,990 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $246,990 Active 1507-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,680
• − Property taxes: −$3,931
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,624
• Taxable loss: −$6,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $-415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Hazel Plan home in Splendora, TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of cozy comfort and modern features, making it an attractive option for first-time buyers or those seeking a functional living space. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, and modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can add value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizing the bathrooms can significantly increase the home's resale value by making it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Adding smart home features can enhance the home's appeal and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters, potentially commanding a higher price or rent.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can add value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizing the bathrooms can significantly increase the home's resale value by making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Adding smart home features can enhance the home's appeal and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters, potentially commanding a higher price or rent. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B