5122 Pepper Mill St · Baytown, TX 77521

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1983 7,679 sqft lot $132/sqft · 25% below area Est $207k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Hardi plank on back & side of the house, new energy windows, New roof, new garage doors, new hot water heater, foundation has been repaired, granite counter top, new stainless steel appliances, stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave, new vinyl flooring, updated bathrooms, new carpet and painted on outside and inside of the house, new deck on back of the house. New landscaping, Included with sale of the house is washer, dryer & refrigerator. Hard wood flooring in living room, one bedroom & in hallway

Key facts

• 7,679 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1983; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor (10x11); Breakfast nook (9x9)
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (11x11, 10x11, 14x12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-219/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,298
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -25.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3501 Old Oaks Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+11%)	1mo	$220,000	$169	75
5407 Deborah Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+5%)	8mo	$189,000	$154	65
5315 Gayla Ln	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+2%)	6mo	$90,000	$75	63
5400 Linda Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-4%)	11mo	$177,999	$159	62
5615 John Martin Rd	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,109 (-6%)	4mo	$399,900	$361	58
5105 Deborah Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-4%)	13mo	$210,000	$187	57
5210 Shirley St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,004 (-14%)	1mo	$185,000	$184	55
5407 Shirley St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-5%)	10mo	$179,000	$161	52
5408 Lillian St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-8%)	5mo	$110,000	$101	51
5316 Lorraine Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+11%)	2mo	$179,000	$137	50
5403 Carousel Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,004 (-14%)	8mo	$180,000	$179	46
5411 Hazel St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-4%)	14mo	$150,118	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-28,559
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-35,424
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $151,773

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $26	+0% $-18	+5% $-62	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-82	+0% $-18	+5% $46	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $21	base $-18	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 W Baker Rd Unit 901 Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,185	$1.11	44d	1	0.78mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,775	$1.80	0d	27	0.94mi
2898 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,216	$1.36	44d	1	0.94mi
2200 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,664	$1.93	3d	13	1.02mi
2257 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,525	$1.51	44d	1	1.18mi
3400 Shady Hill Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$3,295	$3.25	0d	21	1.27mi
6316 John Martin Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $155,000 Active 146-char remark
14. 2016-11-03
    soldstatus
15. 2016-10-31
    soldstatus Sold 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    New Hardi plank on back & side of the house, new energy windows, New roof, new garage doors, new hot water heater, foundation has been repaired, granite counter top, new stainless steel appliances, stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave, new vinyl flooring, updated bathrooms, new carpet and painted on outside and inside of the house, new deck on back of the house. New landscaping, Included with sale of the house is washer, dryer & refrigerator. Hard wood flooring in living room, one bedroom & in hallway

16. 2016-09-24
    status Pending 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    New Hardi plank on back & side of the house, new energy windows, New roof, new garage doors, new hot water heater, foundation has been repaired, granite counter top, new stainless steel appliances, stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave, new vinyl flooring, updated bathrooms, new carpet and painted on outside and inside of the house, new deck on back of the house. New landscaping, Included with sale of the house is washer, dryer & refrigerator. Hard wood flooring in living room, one bedroom & in hallway

17. 2016-09-12
    status Option Pending 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    New Hardi plank on back & side of the house, new energy windows, New roof, new garage doors, new hot water heater, foundation has been repaired, granite counter top, new stainless steel appliances, stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave, new vinyl flooring, updated bathrooms, new carpet and painted on outside and inside of the house, new deck on back of the house. New landscaping, Included with sale of the house is washer, dryer & refrigerator. Hard wood flooring in living room, one bedroom & in hallway

18. 2016-09-04
    listed $129,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    New Hardi plank on back & side of the house, new energy windows, New roof, new garage doors, new hot water heater, foundation has been repaired, granite counter top, new stainless steel appliances, stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave, new vinyl flooring, updated bathrooms, new carpet and painted on outside and inside of the house, new deck on back of the house. New landscaping, Included with sale of the house is washer, dryer & refrigerator. Hard wood flooring in living room, one bedroom & in hallway

19. 2015-11-16
    soldstatus
20. 2008-12-05
    historical
21. 2007-07-17
    listed $89,900
22. 2000-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,070 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,070 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 29% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$644
• After-tax cash flow: $425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-09-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-04 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2015-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-17 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2000-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,070 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.