51 Sfc 445 · Madison, AR 72335

$119,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 362 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot $72/sqft · 47% below area Est $225k · 47% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Listing

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 362 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#307 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,941
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -46.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,802
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $14,453
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72335

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,500 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,500 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,500 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,500 Active 359 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,500 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-04-08
   price $119,500 11-char remark

   Show marketing remark (11 chars)

   New Listing

7. 2025-06-06
   listed $129,500 New Listing 11-char remark

   Show marketing remark (11 chars)

   New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrest City School District
• NCES district ID: 0506270
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,153
• Composite: 9.07/100
• National rank: #9871
• State rank: #230 of 238 in AR

Livability — Madison

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #20578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, AR
• City population: 201
• Population (ZIP): 16,514

Population outlook (St. Francis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 23,269 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 21,122 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 19,281 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 15,222 · -37.6%
• By 2100: 11,449 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francis

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 48.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 0.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.7 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+11.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.86%
• Current HPI: 133.8115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $119,500 CARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $129,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.