1201 Brandon Rd · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1947 8,795 sqft lot $202/sqft · 8% below area Est $163k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this opportunity! Whether you're searching for a home to call your own, or an investor, this charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath. Recent upgrades include new flooring, new appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets, new tile shower, and fresh paint! This home is conveniently located with easy access to access to shopping, dining, schools, and local amenities. With its prime location and solid structure, this home is ready for your personal touch, making it ideal for first-time buyers, or investors alike.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW TILE SHOWER
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-475/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perrymont Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 337 students, 95% FRL); Paul Laurence Dunbar Middle For Innovation (math 37% / reading 66%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 531 students, 95% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $150k implies a 837% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,396 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,462
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -8.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Kenbridge Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	3mo	$176,696	$238	93
612 Thomas Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$142	89
1117 Stratford Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0	750 (+1%)	13mo	$150,000	$200	84
1200 Brandon Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	6mo	$169,900	$201	71
309 Newberne St	0.58mi	2/1.0	761 (+3%)	12mo	$180,000	$237	58
511 Blue Ridge St	0.74mi	2/1.0	695 (-6%)	2mo	$123,000	$177	54
507 Blue Ridge St	0.74mi	2/1.0	691 (-7%)	2mo	$136,000	$197	53
3508 Joel St	0.66mi	2/1.0	786 (+6%)	8mo	$190,000	$242	52
3400 College Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	802 (+8%)	6mo	$169,900	$212	49
4637 Fairmont Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	834 (+12%)	1mo	$148,000	$177	47
4807 Myrtle St	0.73mi	2/1.0	826 (+11%)	14mo	$152,250	$184	36
209 College Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	853 (+15%)	3mo	$154,900	$182	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-24,399
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,143
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $142,906

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $3	+0% $-40	+5% $-82	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-84	+0% $-40	+5% $5	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-1	base $-40	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	22d	1	0.14mi
202 Macon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,195	$1.85	45d	1	0.84mi
1501 Granville St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	15d	1	1.14mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$870	$0.94	45d	2	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $149,900 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    price $159,900 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity! Whether you're searching for a home to call your own, or an investor, this charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath. Recent upgrades include new flooring, new appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets, new tile shower, and fresh paint! This home is conveniently located with easy access to access to shopping, dining, schools, and local amenities. With its prime location and solid structure, this home is ready for your personal touch, making it ideal for first-time buyers, or investors alike.

19. 2026-04-01
    price $165,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity! Whether you're searching for a home to call your own, or an investor, this charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath. Recent upgrades include new flooring, new appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets, new tile shower, and fresh paint! This home is conveniently located with easy access to access to shopping, dining, schools, and local amenities. With its prime location and solid structure, this home is ready for your personal touch, making it ideal for first-time buyers, or investors alike.

20. 2026-01-26
    listed $169,900 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity! Whether you're searching for a home to call your own, or an investor, this charming home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath. Recent upgrades include new flooring, new appliances, granite countertops, new cabinets, new tile shower, and fresh paint! This home is conveniently located with easy access to access to shopping, dining, schools, and local amenities. With its prime location and solid structure, this home is ready for your personal touch, making it ideal for first-time buyers, or investors alike.

21. 1975-11-25
    soldstatus $16,000
22. 1973-07-06
    soldstatus $13,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$749
• After-tax cash flow: $273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1058.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $159,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $165,000 LMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $169,900 LMLS
• 1975-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1973-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +57.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.