405 Monarch Trl · Huntsville, TX 77320

$206,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $206,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $246,829.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#825 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Samuel Houston El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 437 students, 79% FRL); Mance Park Middle (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 904 students, 74% FRL); Huntsville H S (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,431 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,797 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 42% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,683 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,829
• List price: $206,990
• Delta: -10.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Lantana Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,922 (0%)	4mo	$285,990	$149	93
604 Monarch Trl	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,922 (0%)	3mo	$239,990	$125	91
406 Monarch Trl	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+7%)	4mo	$266,630	$129	81
434 Monarch Trl	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+7%)	2mo	$278,630	$135	78
410 Monarch Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,751 (-9%)	6mo	$239,000	$136	76
417 Monarch Trl	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,749 (-9%)	6mo	$249,080	$142	75
418 Monarch Trl	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	3mo	$298,075	$136	71
102 Lantana Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,751 (-9%)	4mo	$239,999	$137	70
606 Monarch Trl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-11%)	4mo	$263,990	$154	70
218 Lantana Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-13%)	4mo	$261,990	$156	70
518 Monarch Trl	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,749 (-9%)	8mo	$234,999	$134	69
206 Lantana Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-13%)	2mo	$209,990	$125	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-50,439
• Equity at exit: $36,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-57,848
• Equity at exit: $21,341

Cash invested: $69,112 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,945 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 119 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,702/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $223,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-76	+0% $-161	+5% $-247	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-240	+0% $-161	+5% $-82	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-99	base $-161	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,707
• Closing costs: $7,405
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3272 State Highway 30 Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$2,155	$2.01	2d	135	0.27mi
136 Col Etheredge Blvd Huntsville, TX	3.0	3.0	1249	$1,650	$1.32	4d	1	0.81mi
149 Col Etheredge Blvd Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	993	$1,735	$1.75	2d	8	0.81mi
172 Ravenwood Village Dr Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,719	$1.78	2d	14	1.03mi
2543 Pine Shadows Dr Huntsville, TX	4.0	4.0	1572	$689	$0.44	6d	1	1.14mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CH&P ManagementAnnual association fee of $400Community amenities include a park and picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilder: Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Back yard fencePond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room combinedKitchen and dining area combinedPrimary bedroom with private bathSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $206,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $206,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $206,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $206,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $206,990 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricestatus $206,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   status $219,990 Pending 28 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $219,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $219,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-07-04
    days on market $219,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-07-03
    days on market $219,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $219,990 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-07-01
    days on market $240,990 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-30
    days on market $240,990 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-29
    days on market $240,990 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $240,990 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $240,990 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-06-27
    days on market $240,990 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-06-26
    days on market $240,990 Active 17 DOM
20. 2026-06-23
    days on market $240,990 Active 14 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $240,990 Active 13 DOM
22. 2026-06-19
    pricedays on market $240,990 Active 11 DOM
23. 2026-06-18
    days on market $243,990 Active 10 DOM
24. 2026-06-17
    days on market $243,990 Active 9 DOM
25. 2026-06-16
    days on market $243,990 Active 8 DOM
26. 2026-06-15
    days on market $243,990 Active 7 DOM
27. 2026-06-14
    days on market $243,990 Active 5 DOM
28. 2026-06-13
    days on market $243,990 Active 4 DOM
29. 2026-06-10
    days on market $243,990 Active 2 DOM
30. 2026-06-09
    remarks 613-char remark
31. 2026-06-09
    listed $243,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,826
• − Property taxes: −$3,702
• − Insurance: −$1,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,180
• Taxable loss: −$6,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,610–$28,830 screening

This two-story home features a modern floor plan with good condition throughout, including a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is ready for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Samuel Houston El F TX #3,836/4,322 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Mance Park Middle F TX #1,236/1,662 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Huntsville H S F TX #1,431/1,632 Nat'l #14,670/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #14909

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huntsville, TX
• County: Walker County · 77,602 people
• City population: 75,669
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CH&P ManagementAnnual association fee of $400Community amenities include a park and picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilder: Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Back yard fencePond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room combinedKitchen and dining area combinedPrimary bedroom with private bathSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $240,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $243,990 HARMLS