409 NW 1st St · Atkins, AR 72823

$117,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

0.55 ac lot Est $188k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and full of character, this inviting 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and classic style. Nestled on a spacious lot with mature trees, this home welcomes you with a cozy front porch—ideal for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Inside, you’ll find a warm and functional layout with plenty of natural light and room for everyone. The four bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Thoughtful details throughout give this home a timeless, lived-in charm that’s hard to find. Step outside to enjoy the generous yard, perfect for gardening, entertaining, or simply soaking up the peaceful surroundings. With its inviting curb

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Spacious lot
• Cozy front porch

Tags

• COZY FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GENEROUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story house; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Corner lot; Cleared and landscaped yard; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating; Electric cooling; Window air conditioning units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Drapes on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($289/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#293 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Atkins School District (rural): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #93 of 238 in AR (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atkins Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 370 students, 70% FRL); Atkins Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 291 students, 66% FRL); Atkins High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #142 of 292 statewide, top 53%, 328 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Pope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($812 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Pope County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $118k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,834 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,824
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 NW 1st St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,792 (-1%)	1mo	$230,000	$128	84
203 NW 1st St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,792 (-1%)	1mo	$230,000	$128	84
105 Avenue 2 NW	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+2%)	8mo	$215,000	$117	75
806 NW 1st St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-5%)	5mo	$32,000	$19	69
704 NW 1st St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-2%)	20mo	$215,900	$122	64
305 NE 5th St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,656 (-8%)	15mo	$129,500	$78	43
307 NE 4th St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-7%)	21mo	$175,000	$104	43
408 Ave 2 NE	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-9%)	23mo	$134,500	$82	35
1204 SW 3rd St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	11mo	$110,000	$71	33
1405 W Main St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-12%)	16mo	$153,500	$97	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $34,245
• Equity at exit: $72,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $99,897
• Equity at exit: $130,465

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72823

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$147 /mo · $1,762/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $117,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $65	+0% $24	+5% $-17	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-18	+0% $24	+5% $66	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $54	base $24	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $117,500 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $117,500 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,500 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,500 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,500 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,500 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $117,500 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,500 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $117,500 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,500 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,500 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,500 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,500 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,500 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,500 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $117,500 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $117,500 Active
19. 2025-08-12
    price $127,000
20. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$1,762
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable loss: −$1,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$404
• After-tax cash flow: $693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atkins School District
• NCES district ID: 0502610
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $39,550
• Composite: 31.85/100
• National rank: #5873
• State rank: #93 of 238 in AR

Livability — Atkins

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #20152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atkins, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,980

Population outlook (Pope County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,303 people
• By 2030: 67,635 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 70,046 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 72,107 · +8.8%
• By 2075: 78,042 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 82,343 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pope

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+43.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.82%
• Current HPI: 273.8762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+186.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $117,500 WRVBOR
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $127,000 NWARMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-20.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $46 · -51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.