3020 Sego Ln · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$69,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1967 4,587 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

Key facts

• Brand new a/c
• Storage utility room
• Hot water heater

Tags

• BRAND NEW A/C
• HOT WATER HEATER
• STORAGE AREA
• STORAGE UTILITY ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE WITH A FULL KITCHEN
• LIBRARY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA membership required (annual fee $400; approximately $33.33/month); Association approval required; Community clubhouse; Senior community; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One level; Faces south; Located in a PUD
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area approximately 624 square feet; Lot dimensions about 45 x 106 (0.11 acres)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oscar J. Pope Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 410 students, 65% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.24%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $13,591
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $37,709
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,568/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $448	+0% $428	+5% $408	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $379	+0% $428	+5% $477	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $446	base $428	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3020 Galaxy Ln Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	517	$995	$1.92	20d	1	0.31mi
3018 Galaxy Ln Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	517	$995	$1.92	20d	1	0.31mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	25d	1	0.52mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	16d	1	0.58mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	5d	8	1.00mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	1.37mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	16d	1	1.37mi
3330 Jean Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	616	$1,300	$2.11	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $69,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $69,900
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $79,900 Active
18. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus $52,000
19. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $52,000 Closed 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

20. 2022-08-23
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

21. 2022-08-16
    price $58,000 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

22. 2022-08-02
    status Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

23. 2022-07-19
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

24. 2022-07-06
    listed $60,000 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to Skyview Estates a 55+ Gated Community. Make your appointment to see this 2 bedroom 1 and a half bath today and make this beauty your own. Needs some work but this will make a lovely home. Realtors read remarks

25. 1994-05-31
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,568
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $4,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+179.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $52,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,568 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.