Dover Plan · Perry, GA 31069

$263,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 581 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. An open-concept design showcases a modern kitchen with a center island, which overlooks the Great Room and dining room to promote seamless transitions between activities. On the opposite side of the home are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Rounding out the space is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $263,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,231.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kings Chapel Elementary School (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B-, #126 of 1,228 statewide, top 10%, 632 students, 32% FRL); Perry Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 1,070 students, 51% FRL); Perry High School (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,478 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 571 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 581 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,932 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 581 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,231
• List price: $263,900
• Delta: -7.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 New Hope Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-3%)	3mo	$260,000	$185	84
515 New Hope	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+8%)	2mo	$282,000	$179	64
519 New Hope	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	61
103 Lasseter Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+4%)	1mo	$261,700	$174	60
207 Kendall Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,631 (+12%)	3mo	$278,000	$170	59
128 Gage Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$169	58
217 Ellington Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+6%)	2mo	$229,000	$148	57
517 New Hope	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+14%)	0mo	$305,500	$185	51
521 New Hope	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+14%)	0mo	$305,500	$185	51
511 NEW HOPE New Hope Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+14%)	3mo	$298,500	$180	48
503 New Hope Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+14%)	3mo	$297,500	$179	48
218 Ellington Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-15%)	2mo	$235,000	$190	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-73,250
• Equity at exit: $42,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-98,299
• Equity at exit: $24,748

Cash invested: $80,145 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.4 mo (42%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,900 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 20 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31069

• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,501
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,293/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,504

Max offer price $225,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-323	+0% $-422	+5% $-521	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-578	-5% $-500	+0% $-422	+5% $-345	+10% $-267
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-350	base $-422	+0.5pp $-496	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,558
• Closing costs: $8,587
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Rainsong Trl Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,450	$1.33	70d	1	0.58mi
108 Ellington Ct Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,750	$1.36	70d	1	0.80mi
120 Worchester Cir Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,260	$1.29	62d	1	0.87mi
608 Daisy Dr Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	93d	1	1.10mi
317 Grayton Way Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,600	$1.16	93d	1	1.30mi
1814 Kings Chapel Rd Perry, GA	2.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	93d	1	1.36mi
1100 Kenwood Dr Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$3,950	$3.04	93d	1	1.47mi
1100 Kenwood Dr Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$3,950	$3.04	70d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $263,900 Active 581 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $263,900 Active 580 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $263,900 Active 579 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $263,900 Active 578 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $263,900 Active 577 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $263,900 Active 576 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $263,900 Active 573 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $263,900 Active 572 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $263,900 Active 571 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 569 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 567 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,900 Active 566 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 565 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $263,900 Active 564 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 563 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $263,900 Active 560 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 558 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 557 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $263,900 Active 556 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 555 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 554 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 553 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $263,900 Active 552 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $263,900 Active 551 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $263,900 Active 550 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $263,900 Active 549 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $263,900 Active 548 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 547 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 546 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $263,900 Active 545 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $263,900 Active 544 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $263,900 Active 543 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $263,900 Active 542 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 541 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 540 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 539 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 538 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 536 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 534 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 533 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $263,900 Active 531 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $263,900 Active 530 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $263,900 Active 529 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 528 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $263,900 Active 527 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $263,900 Active 525 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $263,900 Active 524 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $261,400 Active 522 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $261,400 Active 521 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $261,400 Active 520 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,033
• − Property taxes: −$4,293
• − Insurance: −$1,431
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$8,327
• Taxable loss: −$10,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems, and is move-in ready. The home has a good resale and rental value and can be further improved with some updates to the exterior, interior, and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Fresh flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Fresh appliances can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the bathrooms — Fresh bathrooms can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the interior paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the landscaping — Fresh landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kings Chapel Elementary School B- GA #126/1,228 Nat'l #7,155/41,679 Middle Perry Middle School C+ GA #60/470 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Perry High School F GA #84/424 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perry, GA
• County: Houston County · 169,502 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,953
• Household income: $74,501
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.01%
• Current HPI: 240.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $258,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $257,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $287,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Listed $286,400 Zillow