1222 Campbellton Ave · Chipley, FL 32428

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot $80/sqft · 33% below area Est $127k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. The home features a modest layout with a living area, kitchen, and three bedrooms, providing a solid foundation for your personal touches. Several recent upgrades have already been completed, including a new hot water heater, vapor barrier installed under the crawl space, and additional batten insulation added in the ceiling. Situated on a lot with mature trees and yard space, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. With a little vision and some updates, this home could make a great primary residence, rental property, or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• New hot water heater
• Yard space
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• VAPOR BARRIER INSTALLED
• ADDITIONAL BATTEN INSULATION
• YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.1% in Chipley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 783 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $85k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.00%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,021
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -33.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1228 Church Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	5mo	$80,000	$74	70
540 4th St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,004 (-6%)	4mo	$136,000	$135	69
1203 Old Bonifay Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,113 (+5%)	23mo	$85,000	$76	66
529 5 St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	13mo	$24,000	$22	62
570 7th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+4%)	24mo	$189,900	$171	57
589 1st	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,146 (+8%)	22mo	$129,000	$113	38
1364 Watts Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	14mo	$299,000	$249	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $8,941
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $36,968
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32428

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $659

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $381	+0% $357	+5% $333	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $313	+0% $357	+5% $401	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $379	base $357	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $85,000 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. The home features a modest layout with a living area, kitchen, and three bedrooms, providing a solid foundation for your personal touches. Several recent upgrades have already been completed, including a new hot water heater, vapor barrier installed under the crawl space, and additional batten insulation added in the ceiling. Situated on a lot with mature trees and yard space, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. With a little vision and some updates, this home could make a great primary residence, rental property, or investment opportunity.

18. 2026-04-21
    status Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. The home features a modest layout with a living area, kitchen, and three bedrooms, providing a solid foundation for your personal touches. Several recent upgrades have already been completed, including a new hot water heater, vapor barrier installed under the crawl space, and additional batten insulation added in the ceiling. Situated on a lot with mature trees and yard space, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. With a little vision and some updates, this home could make a great primary residence, rental property, or investment opportunity.

19. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. The home features a modest layout with a living area, kitchen, and three bedrooms, providing a solid foundation for your personal touches. Several recent upgrades have already been completed, including a new hot water heater, vapor barrier installed under the crawl space, and additional batten insulation added in the ceiling. Situated on a lot with mature trees and yard space, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. With a little vision and some updates, this home could make a great primary residence, rental property, or investment opportunity.

20. 2026-03-14
    listed $99,999 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers great potential for investors, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. The home features a modest layout with a living area, kitchen, and three bedrooms, providing a solid foundation for your personal touches. Several recent upgrades have already been completed, including a new hot water heater, vapor barrier installed under the crawl space, and additional batten insulation added in the ceiling. Situated on a lot with mature trees and yard space, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. With a little vision and some updates, this home could make a great primary residence, rental property, or investment opportunity.

21. 2026-03-02
    historical
22. 2026-01-13
    price $113,900
23. 2025-09-17
    price $119,900
24. 2025-09-02
    listed $125,000 Active
25. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus $52,000
26. 2021-10-04
    soldstatus $52,000
27. 2021-09-11
    listed $59,999
28. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $474 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$736
• After-tax cash flow: $3,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chipley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chipley, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,015

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 247.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1114.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $99,999 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $113,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $119,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-04 Sold (MLS) $52,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-11 Listed $59,999 CPARMLS
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $474 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.