2804 Nine Iron Dr · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2003 8,244 sqft lot Est $143k · 15% over $315/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Estate Sale. Cute 2 Bdrm, 2 Bath Home On Cul-de-sac With No Neighbors Behind You. SOLD FURNISHED. Long Driveway With Expanded Parking. Accordian Shutters. ROOF REPLACED 2020. Land Lease Amount Will Reset With New Owner. Nice Property. Privacy Location.

Key facts

• Elongated driveway
• New lanai
• Split floor plan

Tags

• NEW LANAI
• NEW ROOF
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• ELONGATED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Pets allowed (breed restrictions, number limit, possible pet restrictions)
• HOA & community: Community has association with monthly fee; Association amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, billiard room, cafe/restaurant, manager on site, internet included, and pickleball courts; Association fee: $315 monthly (includes security and trash)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (2 covered spaces); 2 carport spaces; Approximately 5 open parking spaces
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Resale; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built as a manufactured structure
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio; Shed(s); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Blinds and single-hung metal windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,803
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7912 Black Tern Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,107 (0%)	8mo	$120,500	$109	80
2816 Eagles Nest Way	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,134 (+2%)	7mo	$146,000	$129	68
2999 Saltbush Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	8mo	$176,000	$169	67
23 Oro Grande Way	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-2%)	6mo	$45,000	$41	66
3316 Ironwood Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,134 (+2%)	10mo	$208,500	$184	62
31 Huarte Way	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+7%)	3mo	$45,000	$38	59
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	58
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+7%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	57
8506 Redbay Ct	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-6%)	6mo	$193,000	$186	52
37 El Camino Real	0.65mi	2/2.0	984 (-11%)	1mo	$15,000	$15	50
3801 Meadowlark Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	4mo	$152,000	$125	49
46 Spanish Way	0.53mi	2/2.0	984 (-11%)	13mo	$15,000	$15	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,782
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,901
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $155	+0% $108	+5% $61	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $27	+0% $108	+5% $189	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $150	base $108	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	0.74mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	24d	1	0.83mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	1.06mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.32mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	1.32mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	14d	6	1.33mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	1.42mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	14d	1	1.44mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $315 · $3,780/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $164,900
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $179,900 Active
19. 2022-04-20
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Estate Sale. Cute 2 Bdrm, 2 Bath Home On Cul-de-sac With No Neighbors Behind You. SOLD FURNISHED. Long Driveway With Expanded Parking. Accordian Shutters. ROOF REPLACED 2020. Land Lease Amount Will Reset With New Owner. Nice Property. Privacy Location.

20. 2022-02-22
    historical Active Under Contract 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Estate Sale. Cute 2 Bdrm, 2 Bath Home On Cul-de-sac With No Neighbors Behind You. SOLD FURNISHED. Long Driveway With Expanded Parking. Accordian Shutters. ROOF REPLACED 2020. Land Lease Amount Will Reset With New Owner. Nice Property. Privacy Location.

21. 2022-02-17
    listed $150,000 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Estate Sale. Cute 2 Bdrm, 2 Bath Home On Cul-de-sac With No Neighbors Behind You. SOLD FURNISHED. Long Driveway With Expanded Parking. Accordian Shutters. ROOF REPLACED 2020. Land Lease Amount Will Reset With New Owner. Nice Property. Privacy Location.

22. 2020-05-21
    historical
23. 2020-02-04
    price $69,500
24. 2020-01-21
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$271
• After-tax cash flow: $1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $164,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $179,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-04-20 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-02-22 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $150,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-05-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2020-02-04 Price Changed $69,500 Beaches MLS
• 2020-01-21 Listed $74,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,171 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.