304 Walnut St · Lynchburg, VA 24504

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1903 6,382 sqft lot $83/sqft · 15% above area Est $125k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * Additional pics coming Thursday * * * Enjoy the ease of downtown living in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on Walnut Street. With its close proximity to shopping, dining, and everything Downtown Lynchburg has to offer, the location is hard to beat. Step inside to a bright, open feel with large, windows bringing in an abundance of natural light. The home features spacious rooms, no maintenance vinyl siding, fresh interior paint, and added insulation for extra comfort and efficiency. The kitchen has a brand new dishwasher and the rest of the appliances will remain with the home as well. Outside, you'll appreciate the thoughtful additions of a retaining wall, new sidewalk, and fencing that encloses the property. Perfect for added privacy and curb appeal. A bonus for downtown living: plenty of off-street parking located behind the home. This one is ready for its next chapter, schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• Brand new dishwasher
• Natural light
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NO MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• ADDED INSULATION
• BRAND NEW DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William M. Bass Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 175 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,284
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 27.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Franklin St St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,860 (-3%)	2mo	$180,000	$97	83
1706 Union St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-10%)	6mo	$85,000	$49	69
1021 Harrison St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+1%)	2mo	$250,000	$129	67
1603 Taylor St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,948 (+2%)	6mo	$90,500	$46	64
110 Emmit Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,903 (-1%)	2mo	$345,447	$182	58
1009 16th St. St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,730 (-10%)	8mo	$189,900	$110	56
1011 16th Street St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,856 (-3%)	13mo	$235,000	$127	55
1301 Clay St	0.34mi	3/3.5	2,038 (+6%)	12mo	$334,000	$164	54
1109 Harrison St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,650 (-14%)	4mo	$265,000	$161	50
59 Emmitt Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,903 (-1%)	12mo	$372,245	$196	48
1321 Taylor St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (-6%)	7mo	$136,000	$75	48
1413 Monroe St St	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,040 (+6%)	13mo	$260,000	$127	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,988
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $19,101
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $256	+0% $211	+5% $166	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $149	+0% $211	+5% $273	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $252	base $211	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1182	$1,600	$1.35	15d	6	0.16mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.37mi
1701 Grace St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,495	$0.69	15d	1	0.41mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	23d	1	0.57mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	0.63mi
1110 11th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,450	$0.72	15d	1	0.69mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.71mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	15d	1	0.72mi
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	15d	1	0.73mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	23d	1	0.81mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	15d	1	0.83mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	0.87mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	23d	1	0.95mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	45d	1	1.03mi
1009 4th St Apt 1 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	2607	$795	$0.30	45d	1	1.08mi
710 Grady St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1872	$795	$0.42	15d	1	1.33mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	23d	1	1.35mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	45d	1	1.47mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $159,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 70 DOM
19. 2026-04-10
    price $169,900 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    * * * * Additional pics coming Thursday * * * Enjoy the ease of downtown living in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on Walnut Street. With its close proximity to shopping, dining, and everything Downtown Lynchburg has to offer, the location is hard to beat. Step inside to a bright, open feel with large, windows bringing in an abundance of natural light. The home features spacious rooms, no maintenance vinyl siding, fresh interior paint, and added insulation for extra comfort and efficiency. The kitchen has a brand new dishwasher and the rest of the appliances will remain with the home as well. Outside, you'll appreciate the thoughtful additions of a retaining wall, new sidewalk, and fencing that encloses the property. Perfect for added privacy and curb appeal. A bonus for downtown living: plenty of off-street parking located behind the home. This one is ready for its next chapter, schedule your private showing.

20. 2026-03-21
    listed $175,000 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    * * * * Additional pics coming Thursday * * * Enjoy the ease of downtown living in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on Walnut Street. With its close proximity to shopping, dining, and everything Downtown Lynchburg has to offer, the location is hard to beat. Step inside to a bright, open feel with large, windows bringing in an abundance of natural light. The home features spacious rooms, no maintenance vinyl siding, fresh interior paint, and added insulation for extra comfort and efficiency. The kitchen has a brand new dishwasher and the rest of the appliances will remain with the home as well. Outside, you'll appreciate the thoughtful additions of a retaining wall, new sidewalk, and fencing that encloses the property. Perfect for added privacy and curb appeal. A bonus for downtown living: plenty of off-street parking located behind the home. This one is ready for its next chapter, schedule your private showing.

21. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $140,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Downtown living and convenience await you in this newly remodeled three bedroom, 2 Bath home on Walnut Street. This home is convenient to all the amenities Downtown Lynchburg has to offer such as shopping and restaurants. Generously sized rooms with beautiful NEW oversized windows allow lots of light and a spacious interior. Updates include, NEW HVAC, NEW vinyl siding, all NEW flooring throughout, freshly painted throughout, Updated Kitchen w/ NEW stove & dishwasher. Ample off street parking in the rear of the home make parking a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $140,000

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Downtown living and convenience await you in this newly remodeled three bedroom, 2 Bath home on Walnut Street. This home is convenient to all the amenities Downtown Lynchburg has to offer such as shopping and restaurants. Generously sized rooms with beautiful NEW oversized windows allow lots of light and a spacious interior. Updates include, NEW HVAC, NEW vinyl siding, all NEW flooring throughout, freshly painted throughout, Updated Kitchen w/ NEW stove & dishwasher. Ample off street parking in the rear of the home make parking a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2020-12-22
    listed $139,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Downtown living and convenience await you in this newly remodeled three bedroom, 2 Bath home on Walnut Street. This home is convenient to all the amenities Downtown Lynchburg has to offer such as shopping and restaurants. Generously sized rooms with beautiful NEW oversized windows allow lots of light and a spacious interior. Updates include, NEW HVAC, NEW vinyl siding, all NEW flooring throughout, freshly painted throughout, Updated Kitchen w/ NEW stove & dishwasher. Ample off street parking in the rear of the home make parking a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

24. 2019-08-07
    soldstatus $25,000
25. 2019-08-06
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 2019-06-20
    listed $37,000
27. 2016-10-10
    listed $45,000
28. 1984-06-22
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$72
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $2,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1206.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $169,900 LMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $175,000 LMLS
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-29 Sold (MLS) $140,000 LMLS
• 2020-12-22 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 2019-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-06 Sold (MLS) $25,000 LMLS
• 2019-06-20 Listed $37,000 LMLS
• 2016-10-10 Listed $45,000 LMLS
• 1984-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.