🏷️ Likely Rental
77 29th St · San Francisco, CA
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.24%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 78°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 7/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 13 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.8/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$999,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records
Listing remarks MLS
After being carefully stewarded by the same family for over sixty years, this stunning Edwardian is ready for someone new to take the helm. Maybe that someone is you? The upstairs flat has been renovated into a modern 4 bedroom/1 bath home with a stunning open kitchen/living dining room where south sunlight streams through huge windows. The kitchen island provides a great place for dining whie chatting with cook and beyond there is ample room for even the biggest of comfy sofas to take in a movie or spend time discussing the happenings of the day. The flat is completed by a big laundry porch, with room for storage and access via rear stairs to the shared back yard. The lower flat is currently tenant occupied @ 2936.74/month. The flexible five room floor plan provides two or three bedrooms a large kitchen, one split bath, separate laundry porch with access to the shared back yard. The location is amazing with access to Bernal, Noe and Glen Park all within reach. You can take an evening stroll to the top of Bernal or spend time at the Outer Noe Rec Center just as easily. Enjoy brunch of Waffles at Four Chairs, a classic Italian dinner at Emmy's Spaghetti Shack or high end sushi at Chīsai Sushi Club. With favorites The Front Porch on the block and Mitchell's Ice Cream just kitty corner, you are right in the center of a very special island of delicious eats. When you need a pick me up, Pinhole Coffee is just steps away on Cortland, along with one of SF's best grocery stores, and too many other convenient delights to list.
Key facts
- Shared back yard
- Big laundry porch
- Outer noe rec center
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $999k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $999k).
- Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $12,786/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $499k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.28% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.31%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.91%
- DSCR
- 1.80
- GRM
- 6.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $1,322,202
- List price
- $999,000
- Delta
- -24.44%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75-77 29th St | 0.00mi | 6/2.0 (+1) | 2,483 (0%) | 1mo | $1,750,000 | $705 | 94 |
| 55-57 Valley St | 0.09mi | 6/4.0 (+1) | 2,556 (+3%) | 8mo | $3,120,000 | $1,221 | 72 |
| 223 29th St | 0.18mi | 5/4.0 | 2,850 (+15%) | 1mo | $1,625,000 | $570 | 58 |
| 266-268 Arlington St | 0.51mi | 4/3.0 (-1) | 2,404 (-3%) | 7mo | $850,000 | $354 | 57 |
| 1191 Guerrero St | 0.58mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 2,680 (+8%) | 2mo | $1,850,000 | $690 | 53 |
| 257 Chenery St | 0.48mi | 5/2.5 | 2,176 (-12%) | 3mo | $1,710,000 | $786 | 52 |
| 258-260 Jersey St | 0.69mi | 5/2.0 | 2,280 (-8%) | 8mo | $1,850,000 | $811 | 47 |
| 1394-96 Alabama St | 0.74mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 2,632 (+6%) | 9mo | $800,000 | $304 | 43 |
| 474 Arlington St | 0.70mi | 4/— (-1) | 2,200 (-11%) | 7mo | $1,235,000 | $561 | 38 |
| 474 Arlington St | 0.70mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 2,200 (-11%) | 7mo | $1,235,000 | $561 | 37 |
| 14-16 Lucky St | 0.75mi | 5/— | 2,122 (-14%) | 7mo | $850,000 | $401 | 35 |
| 14-16 Lucky St | 0.75mi | 5/3.0 | 2,122 (-14%) | 7mo | $850,000 | $401 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 14.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.61×
- Total profit
- $171,192
- Equity at exit
- $148,954
- IRR
- 26.5%
- Equity multiple
- 3.85×
- Total profit
- $797,358
- Equity at exit
- $86,375
Cash invested: $279,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City San Francisco
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57
ZIP-level market 94110
- Rents YoY
- 14.5%
- Active inventory
- 161
- Price-to-rent
- 19.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $12,786 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$5,239
- Tax from tax record
- −$271 /mo · $3,250/yr
- Insurance
- −$416
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$2,685
- Net cashflow
- $4,175
Break-even live
3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3× units | 1 | 1 | $12,786 |
| #1 | 1 | 1 | $4,262 |
| #2 | 1 | 1 | $4,262 |
| #3 | 1 | 1 | $4,262 |
| Total (3 units) | $12,786 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $249,750
- Closing costs
- $29,970
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 753 Castro St San Francisco, CA | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2467 | $10,950 | $4.44 | 44d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 701 Castro St San Francisco, CA | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3300 | $22,995 | $6.97 | 18d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 65 High St Unit NA San Francisco, CA | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2315 | $9,950 | $4.30 | 44d | 1 | 1.20mi |
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-05-15$1,498,000 Active 1546-char remark
Show marketing remark (1546 chars)
After being carefully stewarded by the same family for over sixty years, this stunning Edwardian is ready for someone new to take the helm. Maybe that someone is you? The upstairs flat has been renovated into a modern 4 bedroom/1 bath home with a stunning open kitchen/living dining room where south sunlight streams through huge windows. The kitchen island provides a great place for dining whie chatting with cook and beyond there is ample room for even the biggest of comfy sofas to take in a movie or spend time discussing the happenings of the day. The flat is completed by a big laundry porch, with room for storage and access via rear stairs to the shared back yard. The lower flat is currently tenant occupied @ 2936.74/month. The flexible five room floor plan provides two or three bedrooms a large kitchen, one split bath, separate laundry porch with access to the shared back yard. The location is amazing with access to Bernal, Noe and Glen Park all within reach. You can take an evening stroll to the top of Bernal or spend time at the Outer Noe Rec Center just as easily. Enjoy brunch of Waffles at Four Chairs, a classic Italian dinner at Emmy's Spaghetti Shack or high end sushi at Chīsai Sushi Club. With favorites The Front Porch on the block and Mitchell's Ice Cream just kitty corner, you are right in the center of a very special island of delicious eats. When you need a pick me up, Pinhole Coffee is just steps away on Cortland, along with one of SF's best grocery stores, and too many other convenient delights to list.
-
2026-05-15$999,000 Active 1328-char remark
Show marketing remark (1546 chars)
After being carefully stewarded by the same family for over sixty years, this stunning Edwardian is ready for someone new to take the helm. Maybe that someone is you? The upstairs flat has been renovated into a modern 4 bedroom/1 bath home with a stunning open kitchen/living dining room where south sunlight streams through huge windows. The kitchen island provides a great place for dining whie chatting with cook and beyond there is ample room for even the biggest of comfy sofas to take in a movie or spend time discussing the happenings of the day. The flat is completed by a big laundry porch, with room for storage and access via rear stairs to the shared back yard. The lower flat is currently tenant occupied @ 2936.74/month. The flexible five room floor plan provides two or three bedrooms a large kitchen, one split bath, separate laundry porch with access to the shared back yard. The location is amazing with access to Bernal, Noe and Glen Park all within reach. You can take an evening stroll to the top of Bernal or spend time at the Outer Noe Rec Center just as easily. Enjoy brunch of Waffles at Four Chairs, a classic Italian dinner at Emmy's Spaghetti Shack or high end sushi at Chīsai Sushi Club. With favorites The Front Porch on the block and Mitchell's Ice Cream just kitty corner, you are right in the center of a very special island of delicious eats. When you need a pick me up, Pinhole Coffee is just steps away on Cortland, along with one of SF's best grocery stores, and too many other convenient delights to list.
-
1995-07-21$339,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,250 · $271/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,592 · $633/mo
- Expected delta
- +$4,343/yr (+$362/mo · 133.6%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $153,432
- − Mortgage interest
- −$55,960
- − Property taxes
- −$3,250
- − Insurance
- −$4,995
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$12,275
- − Management
- −$12,275
- − Depreciation
- −$29,062
- Taxable income
- $35,617
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$8,548
- After-tax cash flow
- $41,552/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- San Francisco Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0634410
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 56% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $81,249
- Composite
- 50.14/100
- National rank
- #4088
- State rank
- #322 of 1400 in CA
Livability — San Francisco
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #90
- US rank
- #3143
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- San Francisco, CA
- County
- San Francisco County · 827,552 people
- City population
- 827,552
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 66,865
- Household income
- $158,351
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2732.0
Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,030,936 people
- By 2030
- 1,110,409 · +7.7%
- By 2040
- 1,270,010 · +23.2%
- By 2050
- 1,435,001 · +39.2%
- By 2075
- 1,779,074 · +72.6%
- By 2100
- 1,966,767 · +90.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1385.62%
- Current HPI
- 267.2424
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 14.54%
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
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| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
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| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
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Price history
+415.5% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $1,750,000 San Francisco MLS
- 2026-05-23 Pending — San Francisco MLS
- 2026-05-15 Listed $1,498,000 San Francisco MLS
- 1995-07-21 Listed $339,500 San Francisco MLS
Property tax history
+3.2%/yrLatest (2025): $3,250 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…