512 Dixton Dr · Flowood, MS 39047

$299,995

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1984 0.37 ac lot $121/sqft · 11% below area Est $336k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an incredible home with an elevated deck (that needs some boards replaced) overlooking the 16th hole of Castlewood's Golf Course. Dixton is a partial fixer upper. Great layout. Has a pool that needs some TLC. Please come view this spacious 4-Bedroom, 2.5 bath home with 2475 sq. ft. of living space, adjacent to the 16th hole of the Castlewood's Country Club golf course, nestled on a wooded lot. This serene, wooded setting includes a large deck overlooking the fairway. There is a spacious living room with a vaulted ceiling and formal dining area. The kitchen has granite countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless appliances, and the oversized primary suite has a spa-like bath (separate shower and tub) and an expansive walk-in closet. On the second floor there are three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The pool and deck needs a little work. We are getting quotes.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Custom cabinetry
• Wooded lot

Tags

• ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE
• WOODED LOT
• LARGE DECK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,998 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,496
• List price: $299,995
• Delta: -10.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Woodlands Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,501 (+1%)	2mo	$319,999	$128	69
131 Woodlands Green Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,239 (-10%)	4mo	$374,900	$167	66
341 Woodlands Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,450 (-1%)	7mo	$424,000	$173	62
340 Willow Ridge Cv	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,482 (+0%)	2mo	$356,900	$144	61
304 Fairway Cv	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,359 (-5%)	0mo	$455,000	$193	60
174 Woodlands Glen Cir	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,432 (-2%)	9mo	$349,900	$144	53
320 Woodhollow Cv	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,317 (-6%)	7mo	$306,990	$132	52
316 Woodlands Green Pl	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,723 (+10%)	9mo	$449,900	$165	49
223 Haddon Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,192 (-11%)	9mo	$209,900	$96	49
323 Woodlands Dr	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,717 (+10%)	0mo	$369,000	$136	48
232 Greensview Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,556 (+3%)	4mo	$419,900	$164	47
182 Woodlands Glen Cir	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,827 (+14%)	0mo	$439,900	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-38,434
• Equity at exit: $44,730

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-21,289
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,384/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $299,995

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $250	+0% $165	+5% $80	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $62	+0% $165	+5% $268	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $241	base $165	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,999
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Cypress Ridge Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,206	$1.15	44d	1	0.77mi
917 Willow Grande Cir Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,400	$1.32	14d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,995 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,995 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,995 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,995 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,995 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,995 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,995 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,995 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,995 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,995 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,995 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,995 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,995 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,995 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,995 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $299,995 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    This is an incredible home with an elevated deck (that needs some boards replaced) overlooking the 16th hole of Castlewood's Golf Course. Dixton is a partial fixer upper. Great layout. Has a pool that needs some TLC. Please come view this spacious 4-Bedroom, 2.5 bath home with 2475 sq. ft. of living space, adjacent to the 16th hole of the Castlewood's Country Club golf course, nestled on a wooded lot. This serene, wooded setting includes a large deck overlooking the fairway. There is a spacious living room with a vaulted ceiling and formal dining area. The kitchen has granite countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless appliances, and the oversized primary suite has a spa-like bath (separate shower and tub) and an expansive walk-in closet. On the second floor there are three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The pool and deck needs a little work. We are getting quotes.

17. 2026-03-04
    listed $330,000 Active 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    This is an incredible home with an elevated deck (that needs some boards replaced) overlooking the 16th hole of Castlewood's Golf Course. Dixton is a partial fixer upper. Great layout. Has a pool that needs some TLC. Please come view this spacious 4-Bedroom, 2.5 bath home with 2475 sq. ft. of living space, adjacent to the 16th hole of the Castlewood's Country Club golf course, nestled on a wooded lot. This serene, wooded setting includes a large deck overlooking the fairway. There is a spacious living room with a vaulted ceiling and formal dining area. The kitchen has granite countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless appliances, and the oversized primary suite has a spa-like bath (separate shower and tub) and an expansive walk-in closet. On the second floor there are three generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. The pool and deck needs a little work. We are getting quotes.

18. 2025-11-20
    historical
19. 2025-10-30
    price $319,000
20. 2025-10-30
    price $309,000
21. 2025-10-22
    price $319,000
22. 2025-08-21
    price $333,000
23. 2025-08-06
    price $335,000
24. 2025-04-04
    price $338,000
25. 2025-03-08
    price $348,000
26. 2025-02-16
    price $358,000
27. 2025-01-04
    price $368,000
28. 2024-11-13
    price $370,000
29. 2024-10-09
    listed $385,000 Active
30. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus
31. 2019-08-13
    listed $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$2,384
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$3,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $2,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $299,995 MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Listed $330,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $319,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $309,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $319,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $333,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $335,000 MLSU
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $338,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $348,000 MLSU
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $358,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $368,000 MLSU
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $370,000 MLSU
• 2024-10-09 Listed $385,000 MLSU
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-08-13 Listed $275,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,384 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.