521 19th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$29,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,942 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1910 3,375 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has over 1900 sq ft of living space. This is a great opportunity for investors or anyone looking for a large two-story home. This single-family home has ample space and the front can be made into office space, a storefront, more bedrooms, or could be made into a cool hangout area. There is a living room, eat-in kitchen, laundry room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two other bonus rooms. There is a basement and attic. There is enough parking for four cars. Only 10 minutes from the falls and within walking distance of Pine Ave where there are many stores and restaurants. Come take a look at this property - it has a lot of potential!

Key facts

• 3,375 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 40.5% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,340/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 122.11%
• DSCR: 6.43
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,230
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2213 Mackenna Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,960 (+1%)	2mo	$127,200	$65	70
1424 Osborne Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-11%)	4mo	$70,000	$41	64
2317 Orleans Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,823 (-6%)	21mo	$125,000	$69	58
1968 Welch Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-15%)	3mo	$139,900	$84	53
1791 Welch Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-12%)	8mo	$35,200	$21	53
2478 Independence Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-3%)	22mo	$191,500	$102	51
757 19th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,748 (-10%)	21mo	$105,000	$60	47
2526 Walnut Ave	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,664 (-14%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	45
2426 Falls St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-14%)	7mo	$75,000	$45	43
1715 Whitney Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (+8%)	14mo	$100,000	$48	42
2523 Falls St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-14%)	21mo	$40,000	$24	34
1846 Willow Ave	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,769 (-9%)	20mo	$120,000	$68	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.27×
• Total profit: $77,646
• Equity at exit: $26,936

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.32×
• Total profit: $203,567
• Equity at exit: $58,089

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $873	-5% $862	+0% $852	+5% $842	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $746	-5% $799	+0% $852	+5% $905	+10% $958
Rate	-1.0pp $867	-0.5pp $860	base $852	+0.5pp $844	+1.0pp $836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	19d	1	0.44mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	5d	1	0.47mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	3d	1	0.58mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	5d	1	1.04mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-25
   listed $29,900 Active
3. 2025-04-07
   soldstatus $48,500 Closed 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   This home has over 1900 sq ft of living space. This is a great opportunity for investors or anyone looking for a large two-story home. This single-family home has ample space and the front can be made into office space, a storefront, more bedrooms, or could be made into a cool hangout area. There is a living room, eat-in kitchen, laundry room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two other bonus rooms. There is a basement and attic. There is enough parking for four cars. Only 10 minutes from the falls and within walking distance of Pine Ave where there are many stores and restaurants. Come take a look at this property - it has a lot of potential!

4. 2025-02-14
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   This home has over 1900 sq ft of living space. This is a great opportunity for investors or anyone looking for a large two-story home. This single-family home has ample space and the front can be made into office space, a storefront, more bedrooms, or could be made into a cool hangout area. There is a living room, eat-in kitchen, laundry room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two other bonus rooms. There is a basement and attic. There is enough parking for four cars. Only 10 minutes from the falls and within walking distance of Pine Ave where there are many stores and restaurants. Come take a look at this property - it has a lot of potential!

5. 2025-01-02
   price $65,900 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   This home has over 1900 sq ft of living space. This is a great opportunity for investors or anyone looking for a large two-story home. This single-family home has ample space and the front can be made into office space, a storefront, more bedrooms, or could be made into a cool hangout area. There is a living room, eat-in kitchen, laundry room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two other bonus rooms. There is a basement and attic. There is enough parking for four cars. Only 10 minutes from the falls and within walking distance of Pine Ave where there are many stores and restaurants. Come take a look at this property - it has a lot of potential!

6. 2024-12-19
   listed $69,900 Active 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   This home has over 1900 sq ft of living space. This is a great opportunity for investors or anyone looking for a large two-story home. This single-family home has ample space and the front can be made into office space, a storefront, more bedrooms, or could be made into a cool hangout area. There is a living room, eat-in kitchen, laundry room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and two other bonus rooms. There is a basement and attic. There is enough parking for four cars. Only 10 minutes from the falls and within walking distance of Pine Ave where there are many stores and restaurants. Come take a look at this property - it has a lot of potential!

7. 2024-12-06
   historical
8. 2024-09-06
   listed $69,900 Active
9. 2024-07-18
   historical
10. 2024-06-14
    price $85,900
11. 2024-04-24
    price $89,900
12. 2024-04-18
    listed $94,900 Active
13. 2013-02-15
    soldstatus $15,000
14. 2012-10-19
    historical
15. 2012-07-23
    listed $19,900
16. 2012-07-23
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $10,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,487
• After-tax cash flow: $7,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-07 Sold (MLS) $48,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $65,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-19 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $85,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-18 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-02-15 Sold (MLS) $15,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-10-19 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2012-07-23 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-07-23 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,629 · +63.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.