12500 Melville Dr Unit 138D · Montgomery, TX 77356

$160,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · Condo · 211 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $231/sqft · 30% below area Est $230k · 30% under · waterfront $254/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIRST FLOOR WATERFRONT CONDO IN WALDEN looking onto Lake Conroe and Walden Marina. As you enter you will find your master bedroom on the right hand side, master bathroom, then the kitchen which overlooks living area with granite countertops, abundance of cabinet space, coffee bar and breakfast bar! Your living area is cozy overlooking Lake Conroe with covered back patio to enjoy the sunshine and Lake Conroe living! Walden residents get to enjoy several amenities including area pool, dog park, workout facility, tennis courts, boat launches and more!!

Key facts

• $254 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1764 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,215 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,632
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -30.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-55,993
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-95,973
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $149,000 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +55.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1764
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$254
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $99,215

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-310	-5% $-365	+0% $-420	+5% $-475	+10% $-531
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-467	+0% $-420	+5% $-373	+10% $-326
Rate	-1.0pp $-339	-0.5pp $-379	base $-420	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12100 Melville Dr Unit 403D Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$1,200	$1.76	99d	1	0.22mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$939	$1.80	0d	1	0.85mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	85d	1	0.85mi
13155 Walden Rd #235 Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	79d	1	0.86mi
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	432	$800	$1.85	50d	4	0.91mi
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$950	$1.82	41d	3	0.91mi
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$939	$1.80	10d	2	0.91mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Harbour Village (monthly fee)Monthly association fee of $254Association covers common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer and waterCommunity amenities include boat ramp, fitness center, park, pool, and tennis courtsCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: No assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-storyBuilt in 1978Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioLakefront view / has waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barCrown moldingGranite countersPantryTub with showerCeiling fan(s)

HOA detail $254/mo · $3,048/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $160,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $160,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $160,000 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $160,000 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 193 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 192 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $160,000 Active 191 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 190 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $160,000 Active 189 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 188 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 187 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $160,000 Active 186 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $160,000 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-10-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 177 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $160,000 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $160,000 Active 172 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $160,000 Active 170 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 167 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 166 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 165 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $160,000 Active 164 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 163 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − HOA: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$7,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,460–$10,380 screening

This waterfront condo is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, and good exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace the sliding glass doors — Improves energy efficiency and resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madeley Ranch El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Harbour Village (monthly fee)Monthly association fee of $254Association covers common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer and waterCommunity amenities include boat ramp, fitness center, park, pool, and tennis courtsCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: No assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-storyBuilt in 1978Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioLakefront view / has waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barCrown moldingGranite countersPantryTub with showerCeiling fan(s)

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $170,000 HARMLS