9 Thrivent Ln · Long Beach, MS 39560

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2009 8,276 sqft lot $102/sqft · 30% below area Est $178k · 33% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 2009 with approx. 1,200 sq ft of living space. Situated on a 0.19-acre lot in a quiet Long Beach neighborhood. Features a functional layout and storage shed. Great opportunity for investors or first-time buyers. Located in Flood Zone AE buyer to verify insurance.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Functional layout
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• STORAGE SHED
• QUIET LONG BEACH NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features (see agent for details)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Appliances listed in remarks (see agent for details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (5.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.6% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Long Beach School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #9 of 130 in MS (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,664 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,940
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -32.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1114 Leigh St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,203 (+3%)	4mo	$177,500	$148	71
6067 Daugherty Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,256 (+7%)	11mo	$200,000	$159	68
701 Saratoga Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,174 (+0%)	19mo	$159,000	$135	65
5587 Daugherty Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,047 (-10%)	4mo	$159,000	$152	62
111 Warwick St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,245 (+6%)	12mo	$199,000	$160	61
20280 Daugherty Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	14mo	$158,500	$138	54
5603 Daugherty Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-14%)	18mo	$127,500	$126	53
1004 Alverado Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,284 (+10%)	20mo	$169,900	$132	52
606 Saratoga Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,289 (+10%)	18mo	$178,000	$138	49
20243 Cliff Allen Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	5mo	$219,900	$167	40
209 Shalimar Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-12%)	22mo	$100,000	$97	32
108 Clower Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,295 (+11%)	24mo	$176,900	$137	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,951
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-27,986
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39560

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,392 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $358/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $113,664

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20029 Sunshine Dr Long Beach, MS	2.0	2.0	879	$1,100	$1.25	43d	1	0.16mi
5596 Daugherty Rd Long Beach, MS	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,300	$1.14	13d	1	0.24mi
303 Twin Lakes Blvd Long Beach, MS	3.0	2.0	1233	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	1.47mi
4401 Beatline Rd Long Beach, MS	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,156	$1.05	43d	1	1.48mi
4401 Beatline Rd Long Beach, MS	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,267	$1.15	21d	1	1.48mi
4401 Beatline Rd Long Beach, MS	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,366	$1.24	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $119,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $144,900 300-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    price $149,900 300-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $169,900 Active 300-char remark
19. 2012-04-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $358 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$589/yr (+$49/mo · 164.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$358
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$2,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 2802670
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,548
• Composite: 43.68/100
• National rank: #2955
• State rank: #9 of 130 in MS

Livability — Long Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8554

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Beach, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 18,702
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 18,702
• Household income: $69,769
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 658.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.49%
• Current HPI: 195.0807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $119,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $129,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $144,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-27 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2012-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $358 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.