Meridian Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 249 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Primary suite
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN AND AIRY FOYER
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LUXURIOUS BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,628.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,381 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,628
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: 3.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12871 Hannah Springs Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+2%)	1mo	$299,990	$140	88
12751 Dina Springs Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,978 (-6%)	0mo	$269,990	$136	81
12735 Dina Springs Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (-4%)	3mo	$319,990	$158	81
12706 Dina Springs Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (-1%)	6mo	$288,990	$138	80
12811 Hannah Springs Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,149 (+2%)	10mo	$289,990	$135	76
40728 Pessi Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,140 (+2%)	9mo	$292,990	$137	73
12743 Dina Springs Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-14%)	1mo	$254,990	$141	72
40756 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,035 (-3%)	4mo	$309,000	$152	70
40588 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,370 (+13%)	2mo	$328,990	$139	70
40716 Pessi Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (-10%)	2mo	$268,990	$142	66
12428 Southern Trail Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,902 (-9%)	7mo	$275,000	$145	61
40792 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,377 (+13%)	9mo	$329,990	$139	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $129,112
• Equity at exit: $243,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $380,235
• Equity at exit: $525,772

Cash invested: $75,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,059/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,367

Max offer price $241,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-107	+0% $-200	+5% $-294	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-284	+0% $-200	+5% $-117	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-132	base $-200	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,657
• Closing costs: $8,119
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-03-22
    price $269,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

16. 2026-01-31
    price $279,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

17. 2026-01-09
    price $278,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

18. 2025-11-04
    price $276,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

19. 2025-10-15
    listed $285,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,100 Sq. Ft. The Meridian offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that blends open living spaces with private retreats, creating a home that feels both comfortable and well organized. From the foyer, the first floor opens into a bright central living area where the great room, dining space, and kitchen connect seamlessly. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, and ample counter space to support everyday cooking and entertainment, with the choice to add an island for additional prep space. Just beyond the kitchen, the covered patio extends the living space outdoors. A powder room and centrally located laundry room add everyday convenience on the main level. The primary suite is located on the first floor, offering a private retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Buyers may personalize the bath with options that include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or a tub-and-shower configuration to suit their preferences. Upstairs, the second level opens to a flexible loft space overlooking the great room below, creating an additional area for relaxing, working, or hobbies. Two secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged near a shared full bath, providing comfortable accommodations for family or guests. For added flexibility, homeowners may choose to add an optional game room or convert the space into a fourth bedroom with a private bath. With its open main living areas, pr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,159
• − Property taxes: −$4,059
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$7,873
• Taxable loss: −$7,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Meridian Plan home in Magnolia, TX is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen island addition — Expands prep space and enhances functionality
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen island addition — Expands prep space and enhances functionality ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $285,990 Zillow