Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable) Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$134,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Townhouse · 192 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 191 days

🏗️ New construction. The $134,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $213,142.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $134k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 587 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.93%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,142
• List price: $134,000
• Delta: -37.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6201 Tyler Pkwy #142	1.25mi	1/1.0	902 (+1%)	12mo	$324,900	$360	53
2910 Ontario Ln	1.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	982 (+10%)	7mo	$149,500	$152	33
1117 Lasalle Dr E #1	0.97mi	1/1.0	800 (-10%)	19mo	$164,900	$206	32
2910 Ontario Ln #5	1.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	992 (+11%)	6mo	$130,000	$131	32
1113 Lasalle Dr E #3	0.92mi	2/1.0 (+1)	819 (-8%)	21mo	$168,900	$206	29
2900 Ontario Ln NE #1	1.37mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	14mo	$109,900	$109	26
829 Canada Ave #2	0.76mi	2/2.0 (+1)	956 (+7%)	23mo	$190,000	$199	25
2930 Ontario Ln #8	1.39mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	18mo	$134,500	$133	23
3255 Montreal St	1.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+19%)	15mo	$119,900	$113	22
2900 4th St N	1.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+24%)	17mo	$199,900	$180	21
4916 Ottawa St #3	0.94mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,083 (+22%)	15mo	$203,000	$187	19
4913 Shelburne St #5	0.92mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+21%)	24mo	$189,900	$176	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-55,936
• Equity at exit: $31,780

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-53,748
• Equity at exit: $18,429

Cash invested: $59,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $139,000 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 192 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +53.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,118
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$266 /mo · $3,197/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $148,849

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-371	+0% $-444	+5% $-518	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-496	+0% $-444	+5% $-393	+10% $-341
Rate	-1.0pp $-337	-0.5pp $-390	base $-444	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,286
• Closing costs: $6,394
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,285	$1.18	70d	15	0.55mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-403 Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	763	$1,336	$1.75	70d	1	0.81mi
226 E Greenfield Ln Unit A-406 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	867	$1,486	$1.71	70d	1	0.81mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	70d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 891
• Financial info: List price $134,000

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Home design: Plan home: Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable)
• Exterior features: Located at N Washington Street and Medora Ave in Bismarck

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $134,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $134,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $134,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $134,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $134,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $134,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $134,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $134,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $134,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $134,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $134,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $134,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $134,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $134,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $134,000 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $134,000 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $134,000 Active 169 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $134,000 Active 168 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $134,000 Active 167 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $134,000 Active 166 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $134,000 Active 165 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $134,000 Active 164 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $134,000 Active 163 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $134,000 Active 162 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $134,000 Active 161 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $134,000 Active 160 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $134,000 Active 159 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $134,000 Active 158 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $134,000 Active 157 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 156 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $134,000 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $134,000 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $134,000 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $134,000 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $134,000 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $134,000 Active 147 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $134,000 Active 145 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $134,000 Active 144 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $134,000 Active 142 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $134,000 Active 141 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $134,000 Active 140 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $134,000 Active 139 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $134,000 Active 138 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $134,000 Active 136 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $134,000 Active 135 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $134,000 Active 133 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $134,000 Active 132 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,000 Active 131 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,939
• − Property taxes: −$3,197
• − Insurance: −$1,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$6,201
• Taxable loss: −$9,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $44,550–$80,190 screening

The home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, bathrooms, kitchen, HVAC, and mechanicals. Landscaping and fencing would significantly improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof footprint shows signs of wear and tear.
• Major exterior — The independent image shows a lot with no visible landscaping or fencing.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos.
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible in the photos.
• Major kitchen — No kitchen is visible in the photos.
• Major systems — No systems are visible in the photos.
• Major windows — No windows are visible in the photos.
• Major foundation/structure — No foundation or structure is visible in the photos.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanicals are visible in the photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and fencing — Landscaping and fencing would improve curb appeal and provide privacy. ↑
• Both roof replacement — A new roof would improve the home's condition and increase its value. ↑
• Both exterior painting — Painting the exterior would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both interior painting — Painting the interior would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Updating the bathrooms and kitchen would improve the home's functionality and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanicals would improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscaping and fencing — Landscaping and fencing would improve curb appeal and provide privacy. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Elementary School C ND #52/236 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Horizon Middle School D+ ND #13/35 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Century High School C- ND #14/144 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 119,359 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 891
• Financial info: List price $134,000

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Home design: Plan home: Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable)
• Exterior features: Located at N Washington Street and Medora Ave in Bismarck

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom