Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable) Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$134,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Townhouse · 142 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 141 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 891
• Financial info: List price $134,000

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Home design: Plan home: Ashford-A (Handicap Adaptable)
• Exterior features: Located at N Washington Street and Medora Ave in Bismarck

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,277
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $32,607
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$168 /mo · $2,010/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,285	$1.18	21d	15	0.55mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-403 Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	763	$1,336	$1.75	21d	1	0.81mi
226 E Greenfield Ln Unit A-406 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	867	$1,486	$1.71	21d	1	0.81mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	21d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,000 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$2,010
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$230
• After-tax cash flow: $1,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B