22325 US Highway 18 #33 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1971 Fair condition Est $51k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in nothing to do. 2 bedroom with bonus room or 3 bedroom!!! New kitchen floor. Seller will leave island for kitchen, pantry, washer and dryer. Check it out!!!!! Cash only or large down and owner carry # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Breakfast Nook, Storage ShedNONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Manufacturing # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

Key facts

• Expansive side yard
• Built-in shed
• 6-car parking

Tags

• 6-CAR PARKING
• EXPANSIVE SIDE YARD
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• BUILT-IN SHED
• ENCLOSED OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Suburban neighborhood
• HOA & community: Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Apple Valley Mobile Home Lodge
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (24' x 36') — mobile home remains; Entry level is on the first floor
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Patio-home setting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vanguard Preparatory (1,135 students, 69% FRL); Apple Valley High (2,206 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 432 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $49k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.38%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22325 US Highway 18 #7	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (-3%)	6mo	$49,500	$71	77
22325 Highway 18 #8	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	650 (-10%)	4mo	$14,000	$22	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $40,014
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $101,866
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 432
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $742	+0% $725	+5% $708	+10% $691
Rent	-10% $618	-5% $671	+0% $725	+5% $778	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $737	base $725	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13193 Navajo Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	614	$1,350	$2.20	46d	1	0.99mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,849	$2.47	7d	1	0.99mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,850	$2.47	26d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $49,000 Active
18. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $14,000 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Move right in nothing to do. 2 bedroom with bonus room or 3 bedroom!!! New kitchen floor. Seller will leave island for kitchen, pantry, washer and dryer. Check it out!!!!! Cash only or large down and owner carry # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Breakfast Nook, Storage ShedNONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Manufacturing # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

19. 2018-11-07
    listed $18,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Move right in nothing to do. 2 bedroom with bonus room or 3 bedroom!!! New kitchen floor. Seller will leave island for kitchen, pantry, washer and dryer. Check it out!!!!! Cash only or large down and owner carry # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Breakfast Nook, Storage ShedNONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Manufacturing # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $6,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This doublewide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Paint, awning, and HVAC upgrades are recommended to enhance its appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Awning — Slight wear
• Minor Air conditioning unit — Standard unit, no visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace awning — Fresh awning improves curb appeal and functionality
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Awning · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Air conditioning unit · Standard unit, no visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace awning — Fresh awning improves curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+159.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $14,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-07 Listed $18,900 CRMLS