2394 Shoal Creek Dr · Ferry Pass, FL 32514

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1986 2,866 sqft lot $132/sqft · 11% below area Est $186k · 11% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2394 Shoal Creek Drive! An incredible opportunity to own in one of Pensacola’s most convenient and fast-growing areas. Tucked just off Davis Highway, this home offers easy access to everything that makes daily living a breeze, including major employers, shopping, dining, and top medical facilities. The nearby 9 Mile Road corridor is packed with popular restaurants, retail, and everyday essentials, while the University of West Florida and area hospitals are just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to local favorites like Pounders Hawaiian Grill for a quick bite, as well as a wide variety of shopping and services along Davis Hwy and University Parkway. You’re also just a short drive from downtown Pensacola hotspots like Union Public House, giving you access to vibrant dining and entertainment whenever you want it. Whether you're commuting, grabbing dinner, or enjoying all that Pensacola has to offer, this location truly delivers the perfect blend of convenience and lifestyle.

Key facts

• $15 HOA
• Built 1986
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.4% in Ferry Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#664 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 221 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $165k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.04%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,219
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2316 Shoal Creek Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,175 (-6%)	4mo	$199,900	$170	79
2308 Shoal Creek Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-1%)	6mo	$185,000	$150	79
2360 Shoal Creek Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+10%)	8mo	$154,500	$112	73
2811 E Johnson Ave Unit B	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-2%)	4mo	$199,000	$162	64
9020 Governors Pl Ct	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$194,500	$156	59
9035 Governors Pl Ct	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$180,200	$144	51
9036 Governors Pl Ct	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,250 (+0%)	9mo	$185,000	$148	50
9034 Governors Pl Ct	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$175,000	$140	46
9013 Governors Pl Ct	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	20mo	$135,000	$108	44
8370 Carl Dean St #211	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-12%)	0mo	$105,000	$96	41
8370 Carl Dean #101	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-12%)	16mo	$130,000	$119	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,211
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,931
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32514

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $318	+0% $271	+5% $224	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $205	+0% $271	+5% $337	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $313	base $271	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2345 Langston St Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,250	$1.55	21d	1	0.19mi
8917 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,600	$1.65	24d	1	0.20mi
8990 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$1,775	$1.74	14d	20	0.23mi
8707 N Davis Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,475	$2.43	14d	38	0.31mi
2220 Gloria Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$1,825	$1.63	14d	1	0.40mi
9165 Loomis St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	24d	1	0.45mi
9307 Mabel St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	24d	1	0.49mi
9004 Governors Place Ct Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,450	$1.16	14d	1	0.69mi
9184 Arand Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	21d	1	0.70mi
1613 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,600	$1.25	24d	1	0.75mi
1600 Governors Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,991	$1.97	14d	25	0.82mi
9100 Baldridge Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,966	$1.81	14d	13	0.91mi
1500 E Johnson Ave #128 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,275	$1.18	24d	1	0.94mi
1878 E Nine Mile Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,495	$1.68	24d	8	0.99mi
2025 Cambridge Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,600	$1.16	24d	1	1.08mi
8390 Country Walk Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	1.12mi
3205 E Olive Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,540	$1.71	14d	8	1.31mi
7840 Lilac Ln Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,904	$1.86	14d	16	1.39mi
7650 Kipling St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.43mi
7650 Kipling St Unit 1 Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	1.43mi
1857 Atwood Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	892	$1,399	$1.57	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $175,000 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    Welcome to 2394 Shoal Creek Drive! An incredible opportunity to own in one of Pensacola’s most convenient and fast-growing areas. Tucked just off Davis Highway, this home offers easy access to everything that makes daily living a breeze, including major employers, shopping, dining, and top medical facilities. The nearby 9 Mile Road corridor is packed with popular restaurants, retail, and everyday essentials, while the University of West Florida and area hospitals are just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to local favorites like Pounders Hawaiian Grill for a quick bite, as well as a wide variety of shopping and services along Davis Hwy and University Parkway. You’re also just a short drive from downtown Pensacola hotspots like Union Public House, giving you access to vibrant dining and entertainment whenever you want it. Whether you're commuting, grabbing dinner, or enjoying all that Pensacola has to offer, this location truly delivers the perfect blend of convenience and lifestyle.

16. 2026-04-21
    listed $185,000 Active 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    Welcome to 2394 Shoal Creek Drive! An incredible opportunity to own in one of Pensacola’s most convenient and fast-growing areas. Tucked just off Davis Highway, this home offers easy access to everything that makes daily living a breeze, including major employers, shopping, dining, and top medical facilities. The nearby 9 Mile Road corridor is packed with popular restaurants, retail, and everyday essentials, while the University of West Florida and area hospitals are just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to local favorites like Pounders Hawaiian Grill for a quick bite, as well as a wide variety of shopping and services along Davis Hwy and University Parkway. You’re also just a short drive from downtown Pensacola hotspots like Union Public House, giving you access to vibrant dining and entertainment whenever you want it. Whether you're commuting, grabbing dinner, or enjoying all that Pensacola has to offer, this location truly delivers the perfect blend of convenience and lifestyle.

17. 1998-02-03
    soldstatus $56,700
18. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $3,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ferry Pass

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #664
• US rank: #13543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferry Pass, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 43,072
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,447
• Household income: $66,644
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.99%
• Current HPI: 266.7408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 1998-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $56,700 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.